Thursday, April 11, 2019

Presidential Travel: Ohio, The Battleground States, and the 2016 Election

Below are some stats and charts from the 2016 presidential general election campaign. All data was collected by student research staff at The University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.

BATTLEGROUND VISITS BY POTUS/VP (starting June 8, 2016)
Clinton Kaine Clinton-Kaine Joint Event Clinton-Kaine Total Trump Pence Trump-Pence Joint Event Trump-Pence Total Camp Combined
CO 4 2 0 6 12 5 0 17 23
FL 18 19 3 40 23 9 2 34 74
IA 4 3 0 7 6 8 1 15 22
MI 4 4 0 8 6 7 1 14 22
MN 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 4
NV 5 4 0 9 5 4 0 9 18
NH 5 6 0 11 9 3 1 13 24
NM 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 3
NC 12 14 0 26 18 12 2 32 58
OH 15 5 3 23 16 11 0 27 50
PA 14 10 5 29 20 16 1 37 66
VA 1 5 1 7 9 10 1 20 27
WI 0 6 0 6 5 4 1 10 16
OTHER STATES 18 7 0 25 25 11 2 38 63

CLINTON-KAINE 2016 TRAVEL TO BATTLEGROUND STATES


TRUMP-PENCE 2016 TRAVEL TO BATTLEGROUND STATES

2016 POTUS Candidate Ohio Travel-5 Ohios Visits
Clinton Kaine Clinton-Kaine Joint Event Clinton-Kaine Total Clinton-Kaine 5 OH %
NE 8 1 2 11 48%
NW 1 0 0 1 4%
C 2 3 1 6 26%
SW 4 1 0 5 22%
SE 0 0 0 0 0%
23
Trump Pence Trump-Pence Joint Event Trump-Pence Total Trump-Pence 5 OH %
NE 6 3 1 10 36%
NW 2 3 0 5 18%
C 1 2 0 3 11%
SW 6 2 0 8 29%
SE 1 1 0 2 7%
28

CLINTON-KAINE OHIO TRAVEL

TRUMP-PENCE OHIO TRAVEL


Saturday, December 8, 2018

John Kelly Was Always Doomed to Fail as Chief of Staff

White House chief of staff John Kelly discovered what every White House staff member should know about their job status: they serve at the pleasure of the president
Once any chief loses the confidence of POTUS, and to a lesser extent the confidence of the rest of the White House staff, they are a dead man walking. This was true of Donald Trump’s first short-lived chief, Reince Priebus, and true of Bill Daley, President Obama’s second chief of staff. And President Trump is a reportedly difficult to work for and a mercurial person in general.
For the rest of my opinion piece at The Hill, click here
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/420416-john-kelly-was-always-doomed-to-fail-as-chief-of-staff

Monday, July 31, 2017

After Reince


In an unprecedented move, President Donald Trump hired Anthony Scaramucci as communications director over the objections of Chief of Staff Reince Priebus. Scaramucci has publicly and humiliatingly criticized Priebus, calling him a "paranoid schizophrenic" who will be pushed out soon, and let it be known that the only person he reports to is the President himself, not the chief of staff -- a stunning arrangement for a communications director and a sign of debilitating weakness for a sitting chief of staff.
Reince Priebus has discovered quicker than most what all chiefs come to learn eventually: that the White House chief of staff position is the most difficult and thankless job in government. In a job where burnout and short tenures are the norm, reports abound that President Donald Trump, frustrated by the new administration's numerous missteps, may replace Priebus in what would be a record-breakingly short tenure for a chief of staff in the nation's history (save for those chiefs that finished out the end of an administration). In fact, rumors abound that Anthony Scaramucci himself is being considered as a replacement for Priebus. This would be a disaster. A creature of Wall Street, Scaramucci has never worked in government, the White House, or the West Wing.
...
For the rest of this CNN Opinion piece, click here.

White House Chiefs of Staff, 1969-2017

Below is a list of modern White House Chiefs of Staff (1969-2017) compiled for a book I am co-authoring on the topic.

Chief of Staff                                     Tenure             President                     Party
Harry Robbins (H.R.) Haldeman        1969-73           Nixon                          Republican
Alexander M. Haig, Jr.                       1973-74           Nixon                          Republican
Donald H. Rumsfeld                          1974-75           Ford                            Republican
Richard M. Cheney                             1975-77           Ford                            Republican
William Hamilton M. Jordan              1979-80           Carter                          Democratic
Jack H. Watson, Jr.                             1980-81           Carter                          Democratic
James A. Baker III                              1981-85           Reagan                                    Republican
Donald T. Regan                                 1985-87           Reagan                                    Republican
Howard H. Baker, Jr.                          1987-88           Reagan                                    Republican
Kenneth M. Duberstein                      1988-89           Reagan                                    Republican
John H. Sununu                                  1989-91           G.H.W. Bush              Republican
Samuel K. Skinner                              1991-92           G.H.W. Bush              Republican
James A. Baker III                              1992-93           G.H.W. Bush              Republican
Thomas F. McLarty III                       1993-94           Clinton                        Democratic
Leon E. Panetta                                  1994-97           Clinton                        Democratic
Erskine B. Bowles                              1997-98           Clinton                        Democratic
John D. Podesta                                  1998-01           Clinton                        Democratic
Andrew H. Card, Jr.                           2001-06           G.W. Bush                  Republican
Joshua B. Bolten                                 2006-09           G.W. Bush                  Republican
Rahm I. Emanuel*                              2009-10           Obama                         Democratic
William M. Daley                                2011-12           Obama                         Democratic
Jacob J. Lew                                       2012-13           Obama                         Democratic
Denis R. McDonough                         2013-17           Obama                         Democratic
Reinhold R. “Reince” Priebus            2017                 Trump                          Republican
John F. Kelly                                       2017-p             Trump                          Republican

* After Emanuel left his post to run for mayor of Chicago, Senior Adviser Peter M. Rouse served as interim chief of staff from October 1, 2010, to January 13, 2011.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

White House Deputy Chiefs of Staff, 1981-2017

Below is a list of individuals who have served as deputy chief of staff in the White House from 1981-2017. I compiled this information for the book I am co-authoring about the White House Chief of Staff and Office of Chief of Staff. This chart does not exist elsewhere as far as I know.

President
Chief of Staff
Deputy Chiefs of Staff[1]
Ronald W. Reagan
James A. Baker III
[01/20/81-02/02/85]
Michael K. Deaver [01/20/81-05/10/85]

Donald T. Regan
[02/02/85-02/27/87]
Michael K. Deaver [01/20/81-05/10/85]
W. Dennis Thomas [07/15/85-05/87][2]

Howard H. Baker, Jr.
[02/27/87-07/01/88]
Kenneth M. Duberstein [03/23/87-07/01/88]

Kenneth M. Duberstein
[07/01/88-01/20/89]
M.B. Oglesby, Jr. [07/05/88-01/20/89]
George H.W. Bush
John H. Sununu
[01/20/89-12/16/91]
Andrew H. Card, Jr. [01/20/89-02/03/92][3]
James W. Cicconi [01/89-01/91][4]

Samuel K. Skinner
[12/16/91-08/23/92]
Andrew H. Card, Jr. [01/20/89-02/03/92]
William Henson Moore, III [02/03/92-08/23/92]

James A. Baker III
[08/23/92-01/20/93]
Robert B. Zoellick [08/23/92-01/20/93]
William J Clinton
Thomas F. McLarty III
[01/20/93-07/17/94]
Mark D. Gearan [01/20/93-05/93]
Roy M. Neel [05/93-11/93]
Philip Lader [12/93-10/03/94]
Harold M. Ickes [01/03/94-01/20/97]

Leon E. Panetta
[07/17/94-01/20/97]
Harold M. Ickes (Policy and Political Affairs) [01/03/94-01/20/97]
Philip Lader [12/93-10/03/94]
Erskine B. Bowles (White House Operations) [10/03/94-01/11/96]
Evelyn S. Lieberman (White House Operations) [01/11/96-12/96]

Erskine B. Bowles
[01/20/97-10/20/98]
Sylvia M. Mathews [01/97-05/98]
Maria Echaveste [05/29/98-01/20/01]
John D. Podesta [01/97-10/20/98]

John D. Podesta
[10/20/98-01/20/01]
Maria Echaveste [05/29/98-01/20/01]
Stephen J. Ricchetti [11/98-01/20/01]
George W. Bush
Andrew H. Card, Jr.
[01/20/01-04/14/06]
Joseph W. Hagin (Operations) [01/20/01-07/20/08]
Joshua B. Bolten (Policy) [01/20/01-06/26/03]
Harriet E. Miers (Policy) [06/27/03-02/03/05]
Karl C. Rove (Policy) [02/03/05-08/31/07]

Joshua B. Bolten
[04/14/06-01/21/09]
Joseph W. Hagin (Operations) [01/20/01-07/20/08]
Blake L. Gottesman (Operations) [07/20/08-01/20/09]
Karl C. Rove (Planning) [02/03/05-08/31/07]
Joel D. Kaplan (Policy) [04/19/06-01/20/09]
Barack H. Obama
Rahm I. Emanuel
[01/20/09-10/1/10]
James A. Messina (Operations) [01/20/09-01/26/11]
Mona K. Sutphen (Policy) [01/20/09-01/26/11]

William M. Daley
[01/13/11-01/27/12]
Alyssa Mastromonaco (Operations) [01/27/11-present]
Nancy-Anne DeParle (Policy) [01/27/11-01/25/13]

Jacob J. Lew
[01/27/12-01/25/13]
Alyssa Mastromonaco (Operations) [01/27/11-present]
Nancy-Anne DeParle (Policy) [01/27/11-01/25/13]

Denis R. McDonough
[01/25/13-01/20/17]
Alyssa Mastromonaco (Operations) [01/27/11-05/14]
Anita J. Decker Breckenridge (Operations) [05/14-01/20/17]
Rob Nabors (Policy) [01/25/13-04/02/15]
Mark B. Childress (Planning) [01/12-05/22/14]
Kristie Canegallo (Implementation) [05/22/14-01/20/17]
Donald J. Trump
Reinhold R. “Reince” Priebus [01/20/17-present]
Joseph W. Hagin (Operations) [01/20/17-present]
Katie Walsh (Implementation) [01/20/17-present]
Rick A. Dearborn (Policy) [01/20/17-present]




[1] Unless otherwise indicated, staffers had the formal title “deputy chief of staff.”
[2] Official title was “Assistant to the President.”
[3] Official title was “Deputy to the Chief of Staff.”
[4] Official title was “Deputy to the Chief of Staff.”

Monday, February 27, 2017

POTUSProf's CNN Debut Talking Trump Administration's Executive Branch Appointments

My February 25, 2017, debut on CNN can be viewed here. Though I have a face made for radio, sometimes you just gotta do TV if asked...


Reince's Real Problem

“This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine” --President Donald J. Trump, February 16, 2017

 

It has been a very difficult first month for the fledgling Trump administration. To describe the situation as chaos, bedlam, dysfunction—whatever term you want to use to describe the situation in the White House—is not hyperbole, alternative facts, or fake news. It is reality.

The level and intensity of the chaos within the West Wing is unprecedented in the modern era. Unfortunately for Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, much of the responsibility for bringing order to the West Wing rests with him—the administrative equivalent of taming a pride of circus lions with neither chair nor whip.

For the rest of my op-ed that appeared on CNN, click here.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Whither or Wither White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus?



The following op-ed first appeared at CNN Opinion on January 25, 2017 

After a brutal first several days for the Trump administration, one has to ask: where was the White House Chief of Staff? Traditionally, the chief of staff performs a number of valuable roles for a president, from advising him on policy and politics to representing him to the media and Congress to making sure the administrative and policy processes run efficiently. But during this difficult first week for the Trump White House, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus has been largely AWOL.

Continue reading...

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Veepstakes: The Case for Sherrod Brown

The presidential campaign season has reached a point where each of the party nominees need consider their most important decision of the entire campaign: whom to choose as their running mate for a position that is one heartbeat away from the presidency. Potential names are being floated currently in the media and personal info is being vetted by the campaigns. Both nominees will announce their running mates at or before their respective conventions in July. For a number of reasons, Secretary Hillary Clinton, the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, should strongly consider tapping Sherrod Brown, the senior Senator from Ohio. Here’s why.

 

1. Geography. The Electoral College works in a different manner than a typical election decided by popular vote. Rather, the general presidential election campaign is waged state-by-state in a dozen or less battleground states in an effort to win at least 270 total electoral votes. And no battleground state is more important than Ohio. Simply put, because of the electoral math, it is nearly impossible to win the White House without carrying Ohio. A Republican candidate has never done so; a Democrat hasn’t achieved that since 1960. Even though there is evidence that a running mate does not help carry their home state in the November election, it is possible that in a close election they could make a difference. Having won two elections for Secretary of State, as well as two U.S. Senate elections, Sherrod Brown has proven throughout his career that he is able to run an effective statewide campaign in Ohio.

2. Ideological-Counterbalancing. Secretary Clinton is disliked and distrusted by many in the progressive base who support her primary rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, and who view her as a conservative. Many Sanders’ supporters have indicated through polling and an unrelenting social media campaign that they will not vote for Clinton in the general election. Picking Sherrod Brown as running mate could help salve the wounds laid bare during a rough and tumble primary campaign. Despite being a loyal party insider, Brown is well-known, well-respected, and long supported by the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. He also has high name recognition, not only in Ohio, but also in the country among progressives as he is a frequent guest on MSNBC. Besides being popular with progressives, Brown is beloved by the blue collar and union crowd—a demographic presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has made inroads with during the primary season.

3. Background. Does the person being considered as running mate have the necessary experience, intelligence, and temperament to be an effective president from Day 1? This is the most important question any presidential nominee should ask but often they and the media fail to ask it. By virtue of his educational background, his years spent in both state and federal elected office, and his decades spent under the glare of the klieg lights on the national stage, Sherrod Brown is well-prepared to be president. With eight years in the Ohio legislature, eight years as Ohio Secretary of State, fourteen years in the U.S. House of Representatives, and nine years and counting in the U.S. Senate with membership on some of that institutions most influential committees, Brown’s credentials far surpass that of most recent presidents, vice presidents, and potential VPs being discussed in the 2016 election cycle.

For all of these reasons, Sherrod Brown would be a stellar pick for vice presidential running mate. This choice does not come without costs, however. Brown has repeatedly and publicly declared he does not have vice presidential aspirations and wants to remain in the Senate. Also, were the Clinton-Brown ticket to be successful in November, Brown would have to vacate his Senate seat by January 20 thus almost assuredly ceding the seat to a Republican who would be appointed by Governor John Kasich. However, surrendering one Senate seat to the Republican Party would be worth it for Democrats if it means that Brown could help Clinton carry Ohio and, more importantly, a highly-qualified individual would be serving as vice president. Protestations aside, I suspect that if asked, Sherrod Brown would do what he has always done during his long career in public service—serve the people of Ohio and the country as a whole and say yes.

This op-ed originally ran on Cleveland.com on May 13, 2016, and in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. You can access the original here.

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