Veepstakes: The Case for Sherrod Brown

The presidential campaign season has reached a point where each of the party nominees need consider their most important decision of the entire campaign: whom to choose as their running mate for a position that is one heartbeat away from the presidency. Potential names are being floated currently in the media and personal info is being vetted by the campaigns. Both nominees will announce their running mates at or before their respective conventions in July. For a number of reasons, Secretary Hillary Clinton, the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, should strongly consider tapping Sherrod Brown, the senior Senator from Ohio. Here’s why.

 

1. Geography. The Electoral College works in a different manner than a typical election decided by popular vote. Rather, the general presidential election campaign is waged state-by-state in a dozen or less battleground states in an effort to win at least 270 total electoral votes. And no battleground state is more important than Ohio. Simply put, because of the electoral math, it is nearly impossible to win the White House without carrying Ohio. A Republican candidate has never done so; a Democrat hasn’t achieved that since 1960. Even though there is evidence that a running mate does not help carry their home state in the November election, it is possible that in a close election they could make a difference. Having won two elections for Secretary of State, as well as two U.S. Senate elections, Sherrod Brown has proven throughout his career that he is able to run an effective statewide campaign in Ohio.

2. Ideological-Counterbalancing. Secretary Clinton is disliked and distrusted by many in the progressive base who support her primary rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, and who view her as a conservative. Many Sanders’ supporters have indicated through polling and an unrelenting social media campaign that they will not vote for Clinton in the general election. Picking Sherrod Brown as running mate could help salve the wounds laid bare during a rough and tumble primary campaign. Despite being a loyal party insider, Brown is well-known, well-respected, and long supported by the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. He also has high name recognition, not only in Ohio, but also in the country among progressives as he is a frequent guest on MSNBC. Besides being popular with progressives, Brown is beloved by the blue collar and union crowd—a demographic presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has made inroads with during the primary season.

3. Background. Does the person being considered as running mate have the necessary experience, intelligence, and temperament to be an effective president from Day 1? This is the most important question any presidential nominee should ask but often they and the media fail to ask it. By virtue of his educational background, his years spent in both state and federal elected office, and his decades spent under the glare of the klieg lights on the national stage, Sherrod Brown is well-prepared to be president. With eight years in the Ohio legislature, eight years as Ohio Secretary of State, fourteen years in the U.S. House of Representatives, and nine years and counting in the U.S. Senate with membership on some of that institutions most influential committees, Brown’s credentials far surpass that of most recent presidents, vice presidents, and potential VPs being discussed in the 2016 election cycle.

For all of these reasons, Sherrod Brown would be a stellar pick for vice presidential running mate. This choice does not come without costs, however. Brown has repeatedly and publicly declared he does not have vice presidential aspirations and wants to remain in the Senate. Also, were the Clinton-Brown ticket to be successful in November, Brown would have to vacate his Senate seat by January 20 thus almost assuredly ceding the seat to a Republican who would be appointed by Governor John Kasich. However, surrendering one Senate seat to the Republican Party would be worth it for Democrats if it means that Brown could help Clinton carry Ohio and, more importantly, a highly-qualified individual would be serving as vice president. Protestations aside, I suspect that if asked, Sherrod Brown would do what he has always done during his long career in public service—serve the people of Ohio and the country as a whole and say yes.

This op-ed originally ran on Cleveland.com on May 13, 2016, and in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. You can access the original here.

Scott Walker's Folly

Politico Arena Topic: Scott Walker's Triumph?

Hubris: “an excess of ambition, pride, etc, ultimately causing the transgressor’s ruin.” The Republican Party, buoyed by the 2010 election that allowed them to take over state governments across the country, have taken direct aim at the Democratic Party’s lifeblood: unions. This is especially the case in the industrial Midwest where Democrats and unions are strong. Let’s make one thing clear: the collective GOP effort to kill collective bargaining rights across the land is about politics, not budgets. It’s about gutting the Democratic Party’s one source of cash that allows them to at least compete with the bags of cash flowing to the GOP from Wall Street. The Republican Party’s political ambition is as naked as Charlie Sheen at a Beverly Hills party.

The GOP is currently winning the battles in the various states. In Wisconsin, Ohio, and elsewhere, Republican-dominated legislatures are ramming through collective bargaining legislation despite howls of protest and sinking poll numbers. The Wisconsin case will likely be challenged in the courts as the Senate proceedings may have violated Wisconsin’s open meetings law. In Ohio, two Republican state senators who would have voted against Senate Bill 5 were removed from committee and replaced with senators who voted for it, ensuring passage, 7-5, and allowing the bill to be passed by the tiniest of margins, 17-16, in the Senate as a whole. It will pass in the House and be signed by Governor Kasich. But the story will not end there. Signatures will be gathered for a veto referendum and the law, before it can be enacted, will be placed on the November ballot for the people of Ohio to decide guaranteeing that this issue will dominate Buckeye politics for the next several months.

Have the Republican governors won the argument? Well, they have temporarily won the political battle. But it may be a Pyrrhic victory. In just a few short weeks, the GOP has managed to do the impossible: wake up a slumbering Democratic base and managed to convert some natural Republican constituencies. In Ohio, police and fire fighters and their unions which supported John Kasich will be all in for Democrats for the foreseeable future. In Wisconsin, a naturally progressive-leaning state, Scott Walker’s poll numbers are tumbling and recall efforts against Republican lawmakers abound. Because of Republican hubris, Wisconsin, Ohio, and many other states which may have tipped Republican in 2012 may go back to President Obama and the Democrats. The President should personally thank Scott Walker and his Republican colleagues for their help.

Politico Arena comment

All Eyes Will be on Ohio Again in 2010

John King of CNN has a report about the 2010 races for Senate and Governor in Ohio. Once again, the Buckeye State will be in the bull's eye.

The Republican field looks set. As expected, former Congressman from Southwest Ohio, OMB Director, and U.S. Trade Representative, Rob Portman, will be the GOP nominee. Portman's experience is deep and his resume is impressive. John Kasich, the former U.S. Representative from Central Ohio, Wall Street executive, and television pundit will likely be the GOP nominee for Governor.

On the Democratic side, Governor Ted Strickland will be the nominee running for a second term. Viewed as unbeatable just a few months ago, a very tough budget fight and controversial plan to fix education in Ohio leaves Strickland vulnerable. In a recent Public Policy Polling survey, Strickland's lead was only within the margin of error in a match up with Kasich, 44-42%.

The race for the Democratic nomination for Senate could be murkier. Though Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher is the choice of the Democratic establishment, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is a big name and is thought to be have an advantage with powerful women's groups such as EMILY's List (though EMILY has yet to go all-in for Brunner). If Brunner is able to close the fundraising gap with Fisher and hang on until Spring, this could be a tough battle. Based on current polling, either candidate beats Portman in a match up; however, expect that to change and the race to significantly tighten in coming months, regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Historically, the president's party struggles in congressional midterm elections as the president makes tough choices which angers supporters and mobilizes critics. There are of course exceptions to this general principle, 2002 being the latest example as the GOP was able to capitalize on a post-9/11 pro-security environment. Expect both races to be tough, long, expensive slogs.

Ohio Dems Poised to Duke it out Over Voino's Senate Seat

Well this is getting interesting. George Voinovich's announcement of his retirement last month has set off a flurry of activity as politicos maneuver to secure support in an effort to get the party nomination.

On the GOP side, Rob Portman looks to be taking a commanding lead as John Kasich and Kevin Coughlin are aiming for the governor's office.

On the Democratic side, things are heating up and are poised to turn nasty as some heavyweights are sticking their toes in the water and the Governor is choosing sides. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, longtime rumored as interested in the Senate seat, looks like he is ready to make it official. It doesn't hurt that Governor Ted Strickland has all but endorsed him: "My commitment is to him first....I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."

Jennifer who? Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner of course. Though many want Brunner to run for reelection, successfully overseeing one historic election is probably enough. How can you top 2008? If Brunner jumps in, it will be a hard fought primary. Though Fisher has the Governor on his side, Brunner likely has Senator Sherrod Brown, her longtime mentor. She also has a Profiles in Courage award and the likely support of Emily's List and powerful women in the U.S. Senate.

Over the next several weeks, expect much more news on the topic. Of course, if Strickland becomes President Obama's choice as Secretary of Health and Human Services, Fisher becomes governor and Brunner has a clearer path. Of course if that happens, Representatives Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Marcy Kaptur all might think more seriously about taking the plunge...

And...They're Off

Well that didn't take long. Just two days after Republican George Voinovich announced he would not be seeking another term as the senior Senator from Ohio, former Congressman Rob Portman officially threw his hat in the ring. Portman picked up a bevy of endorsements including that of House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) who said that there was "no stronger candidate to represent Ohio."

Portman will have to work hard to build his name recognition since he is relatively unknown outside of Southwest Ohio. At a news conference in Cleveland a day after Portman announced, many did not recognize him. According to the PD, "as people walked by in Tower City this morning holding cups of coffee while Portman held his press conference, several murmured, 'Who's that?'" A former OMB Director, U.S. Trade Representative, and member of Congress, Portman should have little trouble tapping his network and raising the necessary cash to boost his name ID. His ties to the George W. Bush administration, however, could put him at a slight disadvantage, at least in the current political environment.

Meanwhile, State Senator Kevin Coughlin announced he was exploring a run for the Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. Coughlin's wife Anne may run for the seat he will be vacating. Accoding to the PD, "[Anne Coughlin] filed paperwork with the Secretary of State Nov. 20 that allows her to raise money. The form states the money is for the Senate District 27 in 2010."

Coughlin may face a challenge from former Congressman John Kasich. His biggest challenge, however, may be the continuing feud he has with Summit County Republican Party Chairman Alex Arshinkoff, who Coughlin tried to depose last year. Asked to comment about Coughlin's gubernatorial run, Arshinkoff stated: "When you want to discuss serious news, call me."

Voino to Retire: Let the Jockeying Begin

In Ohio, there has been speculation for years that Republican Senator George Voinovich, the 72 year old former Mayor of Cleveland and Governor, would decline running for a third term in 2010--especially if Democrats were in charge. That political speculation appears to be on target. If true, Voino will join a list of three other GOP senators who are not going to run for reelection: Kit Bond of Missouri, Sam Brownback of Kansas, and Mel Martinez of Florida.

Voinovich's decision will have major ramifications for the GOP in the Buckeye state. Voinovich is a popular moderate Republican who would have had a decent chance at getting reelected despite the current toxic environment for the GOP nationwide and in Ohio. It also means the GOP will be forced to defend an open seat and perhaps forgo a serious run at the Democratic governor.

The question now is, who will run? There are many possible contenders on both sides of the aisle. Here's a quick list off the top of my head--in other words, this list is not all-encompassing, just a first stab at the possible contenders in the horse race which will ensue.

Republicans

Rob Portman. It's no secret that Portman has been gearing up to run for something in Ohio in 2010. He is the favorite, at least in my mind, to run and win the nomination. A former Congressman from Ohio's 2nd District, Portman has a bevy of White House experience in both the Bush 41 and Bush 43 administrations and has a network of donors to call upon. Let's see: former member of Congress (1993-2005), former U.S. Trade Representative (2005-6), former OMB Director (2006-7); yep, that's a pretty solid resume for someone running for Senate.

John Kasich. Another former member of Congress rumored to be interested in running for something in Ohio. Governor or Senator? Probably depends upon Portman's decision and Governor Ted Strickland's approval ratings. Kasich represented Ohio's 12th District for 18 years and has been in the private sector and a FOX News contributor and substitute host for many years since. A huge name in politics in the 1990s known for his fiscal discipline approach.

Kevin Coughlin. Those who live in Summit County are very familiar with Kevin Coughlin; those who don't live in Summit County are not--a problem for Coughlin when you consider the other big names on the board. Coughlin has served in the Ohio State Legislature since 1997 and will be term-limited out of his state senate seat in 2011. It's no secret he will be looking for a new office, perhaps in the Beltway. The U.S. Senate seat would be a logical progression though he may take aim at the governor's office instead.

Mary Taylor. The highest ranking Republican in the state of Ohio. Taylor won the auditor of state seat in 2006 against all odds and was the only Republican to win statewide that year. A very popular figure also from Summit County, her name recognition is likely higher than Coughlin's because of her current post and because of the generally glowing headlines she has received her first two years in office. The question is: will she forgo running for reelection for a job she thoroughly enjoys to take a stab at the senate seat (she is the first CPA to become Ohio auditor)? Nobody knows yet.

Democrats

Lee Fisher. It has long been rumored that Ohio's Lt. Governor was interested in a U.S. Senate seat. In 1998, Fisher lost a close gubernatorial election to Bob Taft. Fisher had served previously as a member of the state legislature and state attorney general. He is a powerful Lt. Governor, simultaneously serving as Director of the Ohio Department of Development.

Tim Ryan. Tim Ryan shocked the political world in 2002 when he upset eight-term Congressman Tom Sawyer in a redrawn 17th District Democratic Primary. He went on to win in November to become the youngest Democrat to serve in the 108th Congress at the age of 29. Before that, he served in the Ohio State Senate. Ryan is part rock star (and is a huge Dave Matthews band fan), part policy wonk, and all charisma. He currently serves on the all-powerful House Appropriations Committee.

Capri Cafaro. Why Capri? Because she runs for Congress as often as I eat chicken wings (translation: pretty dang often). Cafaro is currently the Ohio State Senate Minority Leader representing the 32nd District, a seat she was appointed to to replace the infamous Marc Dann who had been elected Ohio Attorney General in 2006. Cafaro previously ran unsuccessfully against Steve LaTourette in Ohio's 14th District in 2004 and lost a multi-person Democratic primary in Ohio's 13th District in 2006.

Eric Fingerhut. The current Chancellor of the Ohio Board of Regents, Fingerhut is a former one-term Congressman and longtime member of the Ohio State Senate. Fingerhut ran against Voinovich in 2004 and was defeated easily; however, the political environment has changed substantially since then. Fingerhut's resume and current position would make him a decent prospect.

Dennis Eckart. A former six term member of Congress (1981-93), Eckart retired to the private sector and is a frequent political commentator for WKYC-TV in Cleveland. His name always crops up at the mere mention of an open seat. If ever there was an open seat that Eckart would be tempted to make a run at, this is it.