Ohio U.S. Senate Candidate Videos

In the autumn of 2009, the Akron Press Club and Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron co-sponsored a series of luncheon talks by the four announced candidates for the Ohio U.S. Senate seat of the soon-to-be-retiring George Voinovich. The events were recorded by Time Warner Cable and broadcast later on the cable network. The videos for each of those events have been converted and are now available on-line.

Things have changed since then on the Republican side as Car Dealer Tom Ganley dropped out of the Senate race to enter the GOP primary for Ohio's 13th Congressional district, a seat held by Congresswoman Betty Sutton. This is slightly ironic as Sutton became known as the originator of the "cash for clunkers" program which became so popular among consumer last summer and probably put a lot of cash in Ganley's pocket as he is the biggest car dealer in Ohio. Ganley's move leaves former Congressman and OMB Director Rob Portman as the presumptive nominee.

On the Democratic side, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher has been unable to pull away from Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner despite a hefty cash advantage. With the May 4 primary rapidly approaching, anything could happen.

Tom Ganley Video

Rob Portman Video

Jennifer Brunner Video

Lee Fisher Video

Ohio's U.S. Senate Race, Governor's Race, Dead Heats

In a Quinnipiac University political poll of registered voters in Ohio, Republican Rob Portman has overtaken his Democratic rivals, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Democratic Governor Ted Strickland is in a dead heat with Republican Challenger John Kasich at 40% support for each. Given the recent decline in President Barack Obama's numbers in Ohio and the relative surge in the Republican brand, this is not terribly surprising. However, because of the large number of undecideds in the race, anything could happen between now and May and November.

What is shocking, however, is the fact that Fisher has yet to pull away from Brunner despite the backing of many heavyweights in Ohio's political establishment and despite Brunner's anemic fundraising. Democrats do not seem overly excited about Fisher's candidacy and may be ripe for the picking if Brunner can turn around her listless campaign and demonstrate that she is viable.

Expect the primaries to start getting nasty on both sides of the aisle as the May primary is beginning to loom large on the campaign calendar. Tom Ganley, the conservative car dealer, has indicated he is in it to the end and will dip into his wallet. Likewise, Brunner appears to be in it to win it as well. The next few months should make for some good political theater during the winter doldrums.

All Eyes Will be on Ohio Again in 2010

John King of CNN has a report about the 2010 races for Senate and Governor in Ohio. Once again, the Buckeye State will be in the bull's eye.

The Republican field looks set. As expected, former Congressman from Southwest Ohio, OMB Director, and U.S. Trade Representative, Rob Portman, will be the GOP nominee. Portman's experience is deep and his resume is impressive. John Kasich, the former U.S. Representative from Central Ohio, Wall Street executive, and television pundit will likely be the GOP nominee for Governor.

On the Democratic side, Governor Ted Strickland will be the nominee running for a second term. Viewed as unbeatable just a few months ago, a very tough budget fight and controversial plan to fix education in Ohio leaves Strickland vulnerable. In a recent Public Policy Polling survey, Strickland's lead was only within the margin of error in a match up with Kasich, 44-42%.

The race for the Democratic nomination for Senate could be murkier. Though Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher is the choice of the Democratic establishment, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is a big name and is thought to be have an advantage with powerful women's groups such as EMILY's List (though EMILY has yet to go all-in for Brunner). If Brunner is able to close the fundraising gap with Fisher and hang on until Spring, this could be a tough battle. Based on current polling, either candidate beats Portman in a match up; however, expect that to change and the race to significantly tighten in coming months, regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Historically, the president's party struggles in congressional midterm elections as the president makes tough choices which angers supporters and mobilizes critics. There are of course exceptions to this general principle, 2002 being the latest example as the GOP was able to capitalize on a post-9/11 pro-security environment. Expect both races to be tough, long, expensive slogs.

Quinny Poll: GOP Closing Gap in Race for Voino's Senate Seat, But It's Way Too Early to Predict Anything

According to The Hill: "There’s good news and bad news for Ohio Republicans in a new Quinnipiac University poll on the state’s Senate race. The good: They’ve made up ground since last month. The bad: They still trail by a significant margin. Republicans Rob Portman and Mary Taylor both closed their deficits in the race by several points, with Portman drawing seven points closer to Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and five points closer to Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), compared to early February. Still, both Portman and Taylor, the state auditor, trail in every head-to-head scenario by at least five points. Fisher leads Portman 41-33 and Taylor 41-31, while Brunner leads the former congressman 39-34 and Taylor 38-31."

Caution is needed here folks. At this point, it is far too early to tell who is going to win the race, let alone their party's primary. The undecideds are huge in this poll and there are 19+ months to go--an eternity in politics.

Clearly, Ohio Auditor of State Mary Taylor is the wild card on the GOP side. Taylor could give former Congressman, U.S. Trade Representative, and OMB Director Rob Portman a real run for the nomination. Portman is a solid candidate with serious credentials; however, his connection with the Bush administration could cause him some trouble. The big question is: does Taylor run for reelection in 2010 and perhaps run for governor in 2014 or give up a job she loves for a chance at an open senate seat? If she passes, it looks like Portman will sail to the nomination.

And on the Democratic side, as much as Lt. Governor Lee Fisher's camp would like Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner to reconsider her decision to jump into the race, Brunner's not going anywhere. Though others have trown their hat in, Brunner will be the toughest foe for Fisher. For those of you who follow Buckeye politics: buckle up, this should be a fun ride.

Ohio Dems Poised to Duke it out Over Voino's Senate Seat

Well this is getting interesting. George Voinovich's announcement of his retirement last month has set off a flurry of activity as politicos maneuver to secure support in an effort to get the party nomination.

On the GOP side, Rob Portman looks to be taking a commanding lead as John Kasich and Kevin Coughlin are aiming for the governor's office.

On the Democratic side, things are heating up and are poised to turn nasty as some heavyweights are sticking their toes in the water and the Governor is choosing sides. Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, longtime rumored as interested in the Senate seat, looks like he is ready to make it official. It doesn't hurt that Governor Ted Strickland has all but endorsed him: "My commitment is to him first....I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run. I don't say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate."

Jennifer who? Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner of course. Though many want Brunner to run for reelection, successfully overseeing one historic election is probably enough. How can you top 2008? If Brunner jumps in, it will be a hard fought primary. Though Fisher has the Governor on his side, Brunner likely has Senator Sherrod Brown, her longtime mentor. She also has a Profiles in Courage award and the likely support of Emily's List and powerful women in the U.S. Senate.

Over the next several weeks, expect much more news on the topic. Of course, if Strickland becomes President Obama's choice as Secretary of Health and Human Services, Fisher becomes governor and Brunner has a clearer path. Of course if that happens, Representatives Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Marcy Kaptur all might think more seriously about taking the plunge...

Voino to Retire: Let the Jockeying Begin

In Ohio, there has been speculation for years that Republican Senator George Voinovich, the 72 year old former Mayor of Cleveland and Governor, would decline running for a third term in 2010--especially if Democrats were in charge. That political speculation appears to be on target. If true, Voino will join a list of three other GOP senators who are not going to run for reelection: Kit Bond of Missouri, Sam Brownback of Kansas, and Mel Martinez of Florida.

Voinovich's decision will have major ramifications for the GOP in the Buckeye state. Voinovich is a popular moderate Republican who would have had a decent chance at getting reelected despite the current toxic environment for the GOP nationwide and in Ohio. It also means the GOP will be forced to defend an open seat and perhaps forgo a serious run at the Democratic governor.

The question now is, who will run? There are many possible contenders on both sides of the aisle. Here's a quick list off the top of my head--in other words, this list is not all-encompassing, just a first stab at the possible contenders in the horse race which will ensue.

Republicans

Rob Portman. It's no secret that Portman has been gearing up to run for something in Ohio in 2010. He is the favorite, at least in my mind, to run and win the nomination. A former Congressman from Ohio's 2nd District, Portman has a bevy of White House experience in both the Bush 41 and Bush 43 administrations and has a network of donors to call upon. Let's see: former member of Congress (1993-2005), former U.S. Trade Representative (2005-6), former OMB Director (2006-7); yep, that's a pretty solid resume for someone running for Senate.

John Kasich. Another former member of Congress rumored to be interested in running for something in Ohio. Governor or Senator? Probably depends upon Portman's decision and Governor Ted Strickland's approval ratings. Kasich represented Ohio's 12th District for 18 years and has been in the private sector and a FOX News contributor and substitute host for many years since. A huge name in politics in the 1990s known for his fiscal discipline approach.

Kevin Coughlin. Those who live in Summit County are very familiar with Kevin Coughlin; those who don't live in Summit County are not--a problem for Coughlin when you consider the other big names on the board. Coughlin has served in the Ohio State Legislature since 1997 and will be term-limited out of his state senate seat in 2011. It's no secret he will be looking for a new office, perhaps in the Beltway. The U.S. Senate seat would be a logical progression though he may take aim at the governor's office instead.

Mary Taylor. The highest ranking Republican in the state of Ohio. Taylor won the auditor of state seat in 2006 against all odds and was the only Republican to win statewide that year. A very popular figure also from Summit County, her name recognition is likely higher than Coughlin's because of her current post and because of the generally glowing headlines she has received her first two years in office. The question is: will she forgo running for reelection for a job she thoroughly enjoys to take a stab at the senate seat (she is the first CPA to become Ohio auditor)? Nobody knows yet.

Democrats

Lee Fisher. It has long been rumored that Ohio's Lt. Governor was interested in a U.S. Senate seat. In 1998, Fisher lost a close gubernatorial election to Bob Taft. Fisher had served previously as a member of the state legislature and state attorney general. He is a powerful Lt. Governor, simultaneously serving as Director of the Ohio Department of Development.

Tim Ryan. Tim Ryan shocked the political world in 2002 when he upset eight-term Congressman Tom Sawyer in a redrawn 17th District Democratic Primary. He went on to win in November to become the youngest Democrat to serve in the 108th Congress at the age of 29. Before that, he served in the Ohio State Senate. Ryan is part rock star (and is a huge Dave Matthews band fan), part policy wonk, and all charisma. He currently serves on the all-powerful House Appropriations Committee.

Capri Cafaro. Why Capri? Because she runs for Congress as often as I eat chicken wings (translation: pretty dang often). Cafaro is currently the Ohio State Senate Minority Leader representing the 32nd District, a seat she was appointed to to replace the infamous Marc Dann who had been elected Ohio Attorney General in 2006. Cafaro previously ran unsuccessfully against Steve LaTourette in Ohio's 14th District in 2004 and lost a multi-person Democratic primary in Ohio's 13th District in 2006.

Eric Fingerhut. The current Chancellor of the Ohio Board of Regents, Fingerhut is a former one-term Congressman and longtime member of the Ohio State Senate. Fingerhut ran against Voinovich in 2004 and was defeated easily; however, the political environment has changed substantially since then. Fingerhut's resume and current position would make him a decent prospect.

Dennis Eckart. A former six term member of Congress (1981-93), Eckart retired to the private sector and is a frequent political commentator for WKYC-TV in Cleveland. His name always crops up at the mere mention of an open seat. If ever there was an open seat that Eckart would be tempted to make a run at, this is it.