How Donald Trump Could Win the Presidency -- and Have Kamala Harris as His VP

 Rob Alexander and I discuss how an Electoral College tie is possible--much more possible than conventionally thought. See the CNN Op-Ed here.

Ohio Isn't Off the Table: It's Still a Battleground and That's Bad News for Trump.

"President Donald Trump is currently struggling in Ohio, suggesting his path to a second term may be very difficult. No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio, and only twice since 1896 has a Democrat become president without it. Trump himself has proclaimed that 'you can’t win unless you win the state of Ohio.'"

For the rest of this USA Today opinion piece I co-authored with Robe Alexander from Ohio Northern University and Lauren Copeland from Baldwin Wallace University, click here.

Veepstakes: The Case for Sherrod Brown

The presidential campaign season has reached a point where each of the party nominees need consider their most important decision of the entire campaign: whom to choose as their running mate for a position that is one heartbeat away from the presidency. Potential names are being floated currently in the media and personal info is being vetted by the campaigns. Both nominees will announce their running mates at or before their respective conventions in July. For a number of reasons, Secretary Hillary Clinton, the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, should strongly consider tapping Sherrod Brown, the senior Senator from Ohio. Here’s why.

 

1. Geography. The Electoral College works in a different manner than a typical election decided by popular vote. Rather, the general presidential election campaign is waged state-by-state in a dozen or less battleground states in an effort to win at least 270 total electoral votes. And no battleground state is more important than Ohio. Simply put, because of the electoral math, it is nearly impossible to win the White House without carrying Ohio. A Republican candidate has never done so; a Democrat hasn’t achieved that since 1960. Even though there is evidence that a running mate does not help carry their home state in the November election, it is possible that in a close election they could make a difference. Having won two elections for Secretary of State, as well as two U.S. Senate elections, Sherrod Brown has proven throughout his career that he is able to run an effective statewide campaign in Ohio.

2. Ideological-Counterbalancing. Secretary Clinton is disliked and distrusted by many in the progressive base who support her primary rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, and who view her as a conservative. Many Sanders’ supporters have indicated through polling and an unrelenting social media campaign that they will not vote for Clinton in the general election. Picking Sherrod Brown as running mate could help salve the wounds laid bare during a rough and tumble primary campaign. Despite being a loyal party insider, Brown is well-known, well-respected, and long supported by the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. He also has high name recognition, not only in Ohio, but also in the country among progressives as he is a frequent guest on MSNBC. Besides being popular with progressives, Brown is beloved by the blue collar and union crowd—a demographic presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has made inroads with during the primary season.

3. Background. Does the person being considered as running mate have the necessary experience, intelligence, and temperament to be an effective president from Day 1? This is the most important question any presidential nominee should ask but often they and the media fail to ask it. By virtue of his educational background, his years spent in both state and federal elected office, and his decades spent under the glare of the klieg lights on the national stage, Sherrod Brown is well-prepared to be president. With eight years in the Ohio legislature, eight years as Ohio Secretary of State, fourteen years in the U.S. House of Representatives, and nine years and counting in the U.S. Senate with membership on some of that institutions most influential committees, Brown’s credentials far surpass that of most recent presidents, vice presidents, and potential VPs being discussed in the 2016 election cycle.

For all of these reasons, Sherrod Brown would be a stellar pick for vice presidential running mate. This choice does not come without costs, however. Brown has repeatedly and publicly declared he does not have vice presidential aspirations and wants to remain in the Senate. Also, were the Clinton-Brown ticket to be successful in November, Brown would have to vacate his Senate seat by January 20 thus almost assuredly ceding the seat to a Republican who would be appointed by Governor John Kasich. However, surrendering one Senate seat to the Republican Party would be worth it for Democrats if it means that Brown could help Clinton carry Ohio and, more importantly, a highly-qualified individual would be serving as vice president. Protestations aside, I suspect that if asked, Sherrod Brown would do what he has always done during his long career in public service—serve the people of Ohio and the country as a whole and say yes.

This op-ed originally ran on Cleveland.com on May 13, 2016, and in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. You can access the original here.

Obama Wins an Electoral Vote in Nebraska

President-elect Batack Obama keep adding to his electoral vote total. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, anchored by the city of Omaha, has gone to Obama--the first time in 44 years that a Democrat has won electoral votes in the Cornhusker State. In 1964, Nebraska was part of a landslide victory for Lyndon Johnson. In 2004, the 2nd Congressional District easily went to President George W. Bush who garnered 61% of the vote there.

Nebraska and Maine are the only states that do not award electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, instead parceling the votes by congressional district, with 2 votes being awarded based on the statewide tally. Nebraska has used this sytem since 1991 and this is the first time that not all the electoral votes went to the Republican candidate.

The 269-269 Nightmare Scenario

Of all the silly quirks of the Electoral College, the fact that it can result in a tie is a most absurd, but very real scenario. This is due to the fact that the total number of electoral votes is an even number (538). Above is the electoral map from 2004. Here were the results:

• George W. Bush: 286
• John Kerry: 252

Now, most all of the current polls are showing Barack Obama comfortably ahead in the 2008 electoral vote race. However, it is very possible that with the polls tightening, as they usually do in the final days before an election, 2008 may not be the blowout some people expect.

Could Tuesday night end in a electoral vote tie?

Yes, and here's one path to that nightmare scenario. The map stays the same in 2008 from 2004 except:

• Obama wins Iowa, Colorado, & New Mexico.
• McCain wins New Hampshire.

What would happen next?

The election would be thrown into the Congress. The 111th House would vote on a one vote per state basis for president; the U.S. Senate, one vote per senator, would vote for VP.

The Nightmare Scenario

In 1796, due to a quirk in the electoral voting process, electors were mandated to vote for president and vice president without a separate ballot for VP. Though this was later fixed by passage of the 12th Amendment, John Adams (F-MA) and Thomas Jefferson (D-R VA) became president and vice president despite representing opposing parties and philosophies of the young republic. Four years of acrimony ensued.

Could this happen again? Although Democrats will doubtless have a clear majority of individual House members in the 111th Congress, the breakdown of party control of each state delegation is much harder to pinpoint. Take the current Ohio U.S. House delegation: GOP 11-Dem 7. If Dems take two GOP seats in 2008, which is very possible for OH-15 and OH-16, the delegation would be split 9-9. How would Ohio and other states that have evenly split delegations vote in the case of an electoral vote tie? And, what would be the national breakdown of party control of House delegations be following the 2008 election? If Republicans had a majority of state delegations and Dems had a majority of Senate seats (likely 5-9 after Tuesday), the country could be looking at a McCain-Biden presidency.