Ohio Isn't Off the Table: It's Still a Battleground and That's Bad News for Trump.

"President Donald Trump is currently struggling in Ohio, suggesting his path to a second term may be very difficult. No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio, and only twice since 1896 has a Democrat become president without it. Trump himself has proclaimed that 'you can’t win unless you win the state of Ohio.'"

For the rest of this USA Today opinion piece I co-authored with Robe Alexander from Ohio Northern University and Lauren Copeland from Baldwin Wallace University, click here.

Ohio, the Battleground States, and Candidate Visits During the 2012 Presidential Election

Here is some travel data from the 2012 presidential election. As you can see, Ohio led the way in combined candidate travel, followed by Virginia, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado.

Battleground state travel for 2012:

	Obama	Biden	Obama-Biden Total	Romney	Ryan	Romney-Ryan Total	Campaigns Combined
CO	15	1	16	7	8	15	31
FL	15	4	19	13	9	22	41
IA	12	3	15	11	7	18	33
MI	2	0	2	2	1	3	5
MN	1	0	1	0	1	1	2
NV	10	1	11	5	4	9	20
NH	7	1	8	6	2	8	16
NM	1	0	1	1	0	1	2
NC	5	1	6	3	0	3	9
OH	21	3	24	15	16	31	55
PA	2	0	2	4	2	6	8
VA	21	3	24	11	9	20	44
WI	8	3	11	3	3	6	17

First term travel by POTUS to Ohio has steadily increased since the early 1980s:

Reagan	9
Bush 41	18
Clinton	18
Bush 43	30
Obama	37

Obama's Swing State Travel Log

During presidential election years, I get asked by the media quite a bit about Ohio's role as a battleground or swing state. Besides the fact that Ohio is known as the "Mother of Presidents" with a direct connection to 8, in the modern era Ohio maintains its strategic importance to fashioning an electoral vote majority. If it wasn't important, presidential contenders and their campaign surrogates wouldn't visit Ohio as much as they do.

This concept of presidential travel and the electoral map motivated me to actually look at the data. What I present below is just a first swipe--I haven't drilled down into the numbers much. And, this is the beginning of what I hope will be a long-term project tracking the travel destinations of presidents, presidential candidates, and their surrogates.

President Obama's First Term Travel to 13 Swing States I have identified for 2012 election (as of July 13, 2012):*

Colorado: 10/4
Florida: 18/5
Iowa 10/4
Michigan 10/3
Minnesota: 6/1
Nevada: 10/4
New Hampshire: 6/2
New Mexico: 3/1
North Carolina: 10/3
Ohio: 22/6
Pennsylvania: 19/2
Virginia: 49/9
Wisconsin: 8/1

*First number is total separate trips to state; second number is separate trips to state in 2012 so far.

Although Virginia is the most visited battleground state by President Obama, many of those visits were in conjunction with his role as Commander-in-Chief and other official duties (e.g. visits to the Pentagon, CIA, etc.). Also, given Virginia's proximity to the White House and ease of travel to get there, it is unsurprising that it ranks first.

Ohio, it should surprise no one, ranks second, with Pennsylvania close behind. Obama has made 22 total visits to the Buckeye Battleground and 6 in 2012 alone with another one scheduled for this coming Monday in Cincinnati.

Another question intrigued me: how does Obama's travel to Ohio compare to other recent presidents in their first term? I did a quick check and here's what I came up with:

Reagan: 9
GHW Bush: 18
Clinton: 18
GW Bush: 30

It seems that even as Ohio's electoral vote totals have declined over time, Ohio is becoming increasingly popular with sitting first-term presidents.

More to come on this topic as the campaign season rages on.

2008 Bellwether States to Watch When the Polls Close

Two sets of states will tell the story early on for the 2008 presidential election. This is not an exhaustive list, just a focus on those critical early states.

Early Bellwethers

These early bellwether states include: Indiana, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. If Obama wins any of these, particularly one or more of the first three, it will be a blowout. Even if Obama is close in a place like Georgia, that is a good sign for him. If McCain can hold Obama off and sweep those states, it will likely be a much closer election than most pundits think.

The Triad

You've heard of them before: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If Obama wins two of three of these states, check mate. McCain needs a victory in all three, but a win in Ohio and Florida is a must. If he wins all three, throw all the conventional wisdom out the window.