Obama, the Bully Pulpit, and Irrational Lawmakers

Politico Arena Topic: Are President Obama's Public Appearances Helping the Debt Talks?

I don't know if President Obama's public appearances will spur most House Republicans to compromise because nothing has moved them yet--not even their own Speaker who seems more like a hostage than a leader. Perhaps the bully pulpit will prod the American people to slap some sense into these recalcitrant lawmakers but I don't think so. This is not a rational bunch and they seem hell-bent on driving this economy off a cliff.

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Cantor's Clout

Politico Arena Topic: Should Speaker Boehner Watch His Back?

I think John Boehner truly wants to get a big deal done—the $4 trillion grand bargain—which could calm the financial markets and go a long way toward paying down America’s debt. He said as much last week. Boehner must of figured that as Speaker of the House, he was the leader of his party in the House. That’s clearly not the case. Majority Leader Eric Cantor, his second in command, is the guy in charge. After throwing Boehner under the bus by pulling out of the debt ceiling talks a couple weeks ago, Cantor is leading the charge for a smaller deal that would include zero compromise on the revenue side—no tax increases on the wealthy, no closing of tax loopholes, nothing with the word “tax” in it unless it is followed by the word “cut”. The Cantor-led GOP will agree to nothing unless they get all of what they want. At a White House meeting yesterday, Cantor did most of the talking—indicative of his new found clout.



The White House knows the GOP position is unreasonable and will exploit it. President Obama will take to the bully pulpit and Democratic surrogates will hit the airwaves and hammer the Republicans for protecting the wealthy at the expense of the middle and working classes. Democrats have already agreed to make painful cuts in popular entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. What pain are Republicans willing to dole out to their benefactors? If Cantor and his crowd get their way: none. Fear of Tea Party primary challenges and Grover Norquist overwhelm any ability of most in the GOP caucus to strike a reasonable deal. Boehner was right to seek the Grand Bargain—it would have been good for the country and his party. Unfortunately, he way overestimated his own ability to deliver.

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Boehner Gets Tossed Under Bus By Cantor on Debt-Ceiling Talks

Politico Arena Topic: Eric Cantor Gutsy or 'Gutless' on Debt-Talk Walkout?

Will Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) be able to cut a deal with the White House and Senate Democrats without angering his base? Short answer: no way. It looks as if the House Majority Leader has thrown his fellow leader under the bus on the debt ceiling talks. The fact that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) did not consult with or inform the speaker of his intentions to withdraw from the negotiations until he went public, reveals a major rift in the House GOP leadership. Boehner and Cantor may not be exchanging holiday cards with one another this year.

If Boehner succeeds in closing a deal with Obama and the Dems, that deal will likely include elimination of some tax breaks to big oil and other special interests — something Republicans are loathe to do and the Speaker will get crucified from conservatives for this. Boehner will also face opposition from the tea party and small government crowd who are flat out against raising the debt ceiling despite the economic chaos that will likely happen if those efforts fail. And if Boehner fails to cut a deal, he’ll be blamed for that as well. He is in a box alone, courtesy of Cantor and company.

Though Republicans are calling for President Obama to get involved to jump start negotiations, this is a merely a political ploy to force the president to put some skin in the game that can be used against him in 2012. The White House would be better served to let the president concentrate on using the bully pulpit to hammer the GOP on this issue. Meanwhile, Vice President Biden can continue to hold negotiations out of public view.

In the end, all Americans should hope this game of political chicken being played ends soon. The markets don’t like uncertainty. And if it ends badly, uncertainty will reign supreme.

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John Boehner: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Politico Arena Topic: Boehner Cornered by GOP Frosh?

Speaker of the House John Boehner is caught between a rock and a hard place and Democrats have purposely placed him in that uncomfortable position. After all, with the GOP demanding $60+ billion in cuts and Democrats willing to meet them halfway, in a normal time and place a deal would get quickly done. But this is not a normal time we live in and the political waters are more toxic than the cast members’ hair on Jersey Shore. The pressure on Boehner and establishment Republicans from Tea Party freshman in the House is especially intense.

In the end, however, a government shutdown could be a catastrophe for the GOP especially given the Democrats public willingness to meet them halfway. Establishment Republicans also remember how they were blamed for two government shutdowns during the Clinton era. Boehner and the House leadership know these things all too well. My best guess is that Boehner will cobble together enough votes to pass a FY2011 budget acceptable to Democrats and the White House either before a shutdown or shortly thereafter. To do otherwise would court disaster for the GOP as current polling has shown that the brief romance the American public had with the GOP during the 2010 election is over. It is in everyone’s interests, except perhaps House Tea Party folks hell-bent on making a name for themselves, to put the FY2011 budget crisis behind them so they can begin the same exercise for the FY2012 budget.

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Members of Congress in the Bullseye

The assassination attempt of U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) outside of a Safeway grocery store at a district event is a stark reminder that members of Congress, all of whom are public servants, put their lives in jeopardy by being very public figures and dealing with heated, controversial issues that inflame the passions of the citizenry. The shooting incident left six people dead, including a 9 year old girl, a staffer, and a Federal judge, and the Congresswoman fighting for life with a gunshot wound to the head.

The last several years have seen an uptick in heated political rhetoric and a citizenry inflamed by talk radio crazies and politicians and candidates willing to do and say anything to win. When you have a candidate for the U.S. Senate talking openly of "Second Amendment remedies" you know there's a major problem with our political dialogue. Sarah Palin's map of 20 districts to target in 2008, all of which are marked with the cross hairs of a gun, included Gifford's 8th District. Giffords, herself, was concerned about the message the map would send by saying she had "never seen anything like it. The thing is, the way that she has it depicted has the crosshairs of a gun sight over our district. When people do that, they've got to realize there's consequences to that action."

Despite the relative openness with which members of Congress, particularly House members, interact with their constituents and the general public, there have been few assassination and assassination attempts in the United States. The last time a sitting member of Congress was murdered was in 1978 when Leo Ryan, a House Democrat from California, was shot at the Guyana Airport as one of the opening salvos of the Jonestown Massacre. Before that, Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY), the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, was shot after the California Democratic primary at the Ambassador Hotel. In 1935, Senator Huey Long (D-LA), the Kingfish, was shot and killed at the Louisiana State Capitol. The first successful assassination attempt of a sitting member of Congress occurred in 1868, when James Hinds (R-AR) was shot by a member of the KKK. For a list of assassinations of members of Congress, go here. For a list of assassinations of American politicians in general, go here.

Something has got to change in this country. As both House Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama have said, we can disagree without being disagreeable. It's not that hard to do.

Newt the RINO

It's amazing how things change in politics. Newt Gingrich (R-GA), the architect of the 1994 Republican Revolution and the first Republican Speaker of the House to serve since Joseph Martin (R-MA) in 1955, is now a moderate, unworthy of being called a true conservative. He is too liberal to run for president. This is according to red meat eating firebrands such as Michelle Malkin.

Are we living in an alternative universe? Newt Gingrich is not a conservative? No wonder real moderate Republicans have fled the ship or should I say been chased out of the increasingly small tent. In the search for ideological purity, the Republican base is shrinking and the tent is near collapse. Just witness the carnage of the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District where the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, is being gored from the right by the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman.

Writes Dan Balz of WaPo:

"The Republican nominee, backed by local party leaders, is Dede Scozzafava, a state assemblywoman. Like some other northeastern Republicans, she is generally conservative on many fiscal issues but favors both abortion rights and gay rights. She is, say her supporters, the kind of Republican who can win a race in a district like New York's 23rd.

But Scozzafava hardly represents what the base of the Republican Party believes. She is out of step on core issues and, as a result, has drawn opposition from the right. Doug Hoffman, running on the Conservative Party ballot, is challenging the GOP nominee and his growing strength makes it possible that Democrat Bill Owens could grab the seat away from the Republicans.

The race has badly divided the national Republican hierarchy. The contest has become an early example of the fights likely to play out in the future as Republicans argue among themselves about how best to rebuild their party after two devastating defeats in 2006 and 2008.

Scozzafava enjoys the support of former House speaker Newt Gingrich, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and the National Rifle Association. Hoffman has won the backing of two prospective 2012 presidential candidates -- former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and a host of other prominent conservative Republicans."

To me it's self-defeating behavior. Upstate New York is not Mississippi. If moderate Republicans are not allowed to compete for offices by forces in their own party, it will be a long time until the GOP sniffs majority status. A deep southern party does not a majority party make.

Democrats have their own issues with tears in the tent. Just witness the infighting between liberals and Blue Dogs over health care reform. But none of these minor skirmishes approach the Civil War brewing on the Right. Newt Gingrich not conservative enough? It truly is a new era we live in.

Hat Tip: Political Wire

And...They're Off

Well that didn't take long. Just two days after Republican George Voinovich announced he would not be seeking another term as the senior Senator from Ohio, former Congressman Rob Portman officially threw his hat in the ring. Portman picked up a bevy of endorsements including that of House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) who said that there was "no stronger candidate to represent Ohio."

Portman will have to work hard to build his name recognition since he is relatively unknown outside of Southwest Ohio. At a news conference in Cleveland a day after Portman announced, many did not recognize him. According to the PD, "as people walked by in Tower City this morning holding cups of coffee while Portman held his press conference, several murmured, 'Who's that?'" A former OMB Director, U.S. Trade Representative, and member of Congress, Portman should have little trouble tapping his network and raising the necessary cash to boost his name ID. His ties to the George W. Bush administration, however, could put him at a slight disadvantage, at least in the current political environment.

Meanwhile, State Senator Kevin Coughlin announced he was exploring a run for the Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. Coughlin's wife Anne may run for the seat he will be vacating. Accoding to the PD, "[Anne Coughlin] filed paperwork with the Secretary of State Nov. 20 that allows her to raise money. The form states the money is for the Senate District 27 in 2010."

Coughlin may face a challenge from former Congressman John Kasich. His biggest challenge, however, may be the continuing feud he has with Summit County Republican Party Chairman Alex Arshinkoff, who Coughlin tried to depose last year. Asked to comment about Coughlin's gubernatorial run, Arshinkoff stated: "When you want to discuss serious news, call me."

Yet More Members of Congress Dogged by Scandal

Charlie Rangel (D-NY), the 78 year old chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, is the latest Democrat reeling from an ethics investigation. Rangel came to Congress after defeating longtime incumbent Democrat Adam Clayton Powell in 1970 in a five way primary and went on to win the general election in the Harlem district with 88% of the vote. At the time, Powell was reeling because of ethics issues). The House Ethics Committee is looking into several questionable actions by Rangel including "whether Rangel helped preserve a lucrative tax break that benefited an oil-drilling company last year, while its chief executive was pledging $1 million to a college center named in the congressman's honor. The ethics committee also is looking at Rangel's use of congressional stationery to ask foundations to support the school project; using four rent-stabilized apartments in a Harlem apartment building; and not reporting or paying taxes on $75,000 in rental income from his villa in the Dominican Republic." House Speaker hopes to have the investigation wrapped up by January 3, when the 111th Congress will begin.

On the other side of the aisle, Don Young, Alaska's lone House member, has stepped down from his position as ranking Republican on the House Natural Resources Committee after pressure from House Minority Leader John Boehner. Young, who "once said Alaska national parks and wilderness areas were for 'jet-setting hippie backpackers',...is being probed by grand juries in Washington, D.C., and Alaska, mainly for earmarks during his tenure as chairman of the House Transportation Committee."

Seattlepi.com has a great description of the mercurial Young: "Self-described as 'the congressman for all Alaskans', Young was elected to Congress in 1973, and is the second longest serving Republican member of the House. He is best known in the 'lower 48' as champion of the 'bridges to nowhere,' federal pork barrel projects that would have linked Anchorage and Ketchikan to sparsely populated destinations. In Alaska, Young is famous for malaprops (e.g. 'bladderdash'), faithfully recorded by 'The Ear' column in the Daily News. The 'alpha wolf,' as Young once called himself, has been a mean man with whom to tangle. He has made not-infrequent threats against fellow members on the House floor.Young once waved a walrus' male sex organ in the air at a House hearing. On another occasion, the congressman put his hand into a leg trap, supposedly to demonstrate that it was a humane way to capture and kill wolves. And, most famously, he denounced National Endowment to the Arts funding while speaking to a high school assembly in Fairbanks. Pressed to give reasons, he cited a proposed grant to the late homo-erotic photographer Robert Mapplethorpe. The kids pressed further, and Young used a obscene expression for gay sex to describe scenes from Mapplethorpe's photos. Apologies followed."

Priceless. Expect Young and Stevens to be rooming with each other soon at a Federal penitentiary, unless they can cut a deal of course...