Fmr US Rep. Steve LaTourette Spends a Day at The University of Akron

On April 22, Former United States Representative Steve LaTourette (R-OH) spent the day at The University of Akron. A nine-term Congressman who represented a district in Northeast Ohio, LaTourette is president of the Washington-based McDonald Hopkins Government Strategies and more importantly heads up the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group which supports mainstream Republican candidates and office-holders, particularly against Tea Party and far-right primary challenges.

LaTourette spent the entire day at Akron, speaking at a luncheon sponsored by the Akron Press Club and co-sponsored by the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics and the new campus organization No Labels of Akron. After that, he spoke to undergraduate and graduate students in my American National Politics Seminar and later that evening visited with Dr. John Green's and Jerry Austin's Campaign Battleground class.

LaTourette is a breath of fresh air--no bullet points and candor at all times.

Too Early for Romney Campaign to Pop the Champagne Corks

Politico Arena Topic: Is Mitt Romney the Republican Nominee?

There is no question that Mitt Romney had a good night. He resumed his status as frontrunner.

But before the Romney campaign starts popping the champagne corks, there are some troubling clouds gathered over the Florida landscape. Though Romney swept most of the CNN exit poll categories, Newt Gingrich was the first choice among evangelicals, tea party folks, and those that identified as “very conservative.”

These people have always been Romney’s Achilles heel and that pattern continued in Florida. Turnout was also down significantly - about 10 percent or 280,000+ GOP voters - from 2008. These factors indicate that the conservative base has yet to warm to Romney. Yes he has a huge advantage in money. Yes the outside groups supporting him also have deep pockets and are clearly willing to unleash the negativity on Gingrich and other rivals. However, until Romney solves his problem with conservatives, particularly those on the Religious Right, the GOP primary will last for several more weeks - especially heading into Super Tuesday and beyond where a number of Southern states will hold primaries - the kind of political landscape Gingrich should do well in.

More importantly, should he be the nominee, unless Romney solves his conservative problem, he will struggle in the general election where you must turn out your base in order to have a chance at winning. The fact that Florida GOP voters stayed home in droves yesterday indicates a base that has yet to warm - any may never warm - to Romney or his fellow GOP candidates.

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Invoke the 14th Amendment--Political Consequences Be Damned

Politico Arena Topic: Should Obama Invoke the 14th Amendment?

In the event that Congress is unable to come to agreement on a balanced deficit reduction bill or a clean bill which simple raises the debt ceiling, President Obama should absolutely utilize his unilateral powers to raise it. During George W. Bush’s presidency, Congress raised the debt ceiling seven times with little fanfare. During Ronald Reagan’s presidency, Congress raised the limit eighteen times. I have little doubt that Presidents Reagan or Bush would have raised the ceiling unilaterally had Congress pulled the kinds of political shenanigans we are seeing today—consequences be damned.

The president’s most important responsibility is to protect the American people—allowing the country to default on its obligations would do irreparable harm to the economy and the citizenry. The President—any president—has a duty to not let that happen. Even without the 14th Amendment, President Obama would be justified in using his prerogative powers just as Abraham Lincoln did during the Civil War, and other presidents such as Woodrow Wilson and FDR did during times of crisis.

There would certainly be a political cost to using unilateral powers to end this congressionally contrived crisis; however, the costs of doing nothing would be much steeper. The House would likely move to impeach the President but even if successful, a conviction would be unlikely in the Senate where a 2/3 majority is necessary for removal. For many, President Obama would be a hero as he moved decisively to save a country held hostage by Tea Party radicals in the House of Representatives.

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Obama, the Bully Pulpit, and Irrational Lawmakers

Politico Arena Topic: Are President Obama's Public Appearances Helping the Debt Talks?

I don't know if President Obama's public appearances will spur most House Republicans to compromise because nothing has moved them yet--not even their own Speaker who seems more like a hostage than a leader. Perhaps the bully pulpit will prod the American people to slap some sense into these recalcitrant lawmakers but I don't think so. This is not a rational bunch and they seem hell-bent on driving this economy off a cliff.

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Trump: Seriously?

Politico Arena Topic: Just How Serious is Donald Trump for President?

Donald Trump should be taken seriously if only because he has two things going for him which are critical for making a successful run for higher office: money and name recognition. Often, wealthy candidates such as Ross Perot had to use their money to boost their name ID. Not Trump. People know the name. In a Gallup Poll taken last month, 98% of respondents had at least heard of Donald Trump. Unfortunately for him, they also know the Trump brand. You know—the real estate mogul who has had multiple wives, television shows, and has never met a camera he won’t pose for. He’s a divisive figure. The negatives in that same Gallup Poll were higher than the positives. And that’s before opposition researchers have had much of a chance to start culling his public and private statements, business dealings, and personal life. Oh how those oppo researchers are salivating at a chance to pick him apart.

It’s no secret that Trump has been courting the Tea Party and other anti-establishment folks with his public conversion to the birther cause. This is no accident. It’s strategic. The Republican establishment will never warm to him. As I have said in this forum before, Trump’s easiest way onto the presidential stage may not be through the GOP primary thicket. Instead, his pockets may be deep enough and his ego large enough that he may fancy a third party/independent run for the White House. Trump needs these folks for either an insurgent Republican primary campaign or an independent run. And the folks at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and at Obama’s campaign HQ in Chicago are quietly rooting for him.

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John Boehner: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Politico Arena Topic: Boehner Cornered by GOP Frosh?

Speaker of the House John Boehner is caught between a rock and a hard place and Democrats have purposely placed him in that uncomfortable position. After all, with the GOP demanding $60+ billion in cuts and Democrats willing to meet them halfway, in a normal time and place a deal would get quickly done. But this is not a normal time we live in and the political waters are more toxic than the cast members’ hair on Jersey Shore. The pressure on Boehner and establishment Republicans from Tea Party freshman in the House is especially intense.

In the end, however, a government shutdown could be a catastrophe for the GOP especially given the Democrats public willingness to meet them halfway. Establishment Republicans also remember how they were blamed for two government shutdowns during the Clinton era. Boehner and the House leadership know these things all too well. My best guess is that Boehner will cobble together enough votes to pass a FY2011 budget acceptable to Democrats and the White House either before a shutdown or shortly thereafter. To do otherwise would court disaster for the GOP as current polling has shown that the brief romance the American public had with the GOP during the 2010 election is over. It is in everyone’s interests, except perhaps House Tea Party folks hell-bent on making a name for themselves, to put the FY2011 budget crisis behind them so they can begin the same exercise for the FY2012 budget.

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