Bain and the Political Street Fight

Politico Arena Topic: Should Democrats Stop Bain Capital Attacks?

“They apparently looted the companies, left people unemployed and walked off with millions of dollars. Look, I’m for capitalism, I’m for people who go in to save a company... if somebody comes in takes all the money out of your company, and then leaves you bankrupt while they go off with millions, that’s not traditional capitalism.” Those were not the words of President Barack Obama but rather Newt Gingrich, one of Mitt Romney’s chief rivals for the GOP nomination, just four months ago. Bain was a major target during the Republican Primary season. So what has changed? Absolutely nothing except that some Democrats are getting squeamish about attacking Romney’s one supposed advantage in the election—his business experience—for fear of angering Wall Street and Corporate America. Here’s a news flash Democrats: they already don’t like you nor trust you, just check the campaign finance records.

The Obama campaign is exactly right to take on Romney’s business credentials by delving into the world of Bain Capital and private equity. After all, Romney touts his business acumen at every campaign stop. And the Obama campaign appears to be on the correct side of public opinion on the issue of wealth in general. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll released today, 56% of Americans agreed that “unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy” was a “bigger problem in this country” compared to 34% who felt “over-regulation of the free market” was a more important problem.

Finally, the notion that it is somehow unfair to examine a candidate’s past record is laughable. After all, a campaign should be about the issues and record/experience that each candidate brings to the table. In 2008 (as will be the case in 2012), the Republican Party and McCain campaign had little hesitation inspecting every vote Barack Obama cast and every public utterance he made as a U.S. Senator or Illinois legislator. Obama’s life as a community organizer and even as a student also came under great public examination. Even Sarah Palin, who took so much issue recently with scrutiny of Bain, did not hesitate as John McCain’s vice presidential running mate to accuse Obama of “palling around with terrorists” and other attacks perceived as way out of bounds and simply not true. If the Obama campaign were to give-in to the criticism and relax its investigation of Romney’s record as a venture capitalist, it would be unilaterally disarming.

It is common practice for campaigns to cry foul and argue that attacks by the other side are unfair. The Obama campaign will certainly do the same. However, a presidential campaign is not a high-minded game of chess played over wine and finger-food but rather a street fight fought in a dark alley with sharp implements for the most important office in the land. And just about anything, from Swiss bank accounts to birth certificates, is fair game.

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Too Early for Romney Campaign to Pop the Champagne Corks

Politico Arena Topic: Is Mitt Romney the Republican Nominee?

There is no question that Mitt Romney had a good night. He resumed his status as frontrunner.

But before the Romney campaign starts popping the champagne corks, there are some troubling clouds gathered over the Florida landscape. Though Romney swept most of the CNN exit poll categories, Newt Gingrich was the first choice among evangelicals, tea party folks, and those that identified as “very conservative.”

These people have always been Romney’s Achilles heel and that pattern continued in Florida. Turnout was also down significantly - about 10 percent or 280,000+ GOP voters - from 2008. These factors indicate that the conservative base has yet to warm to Romney. Yes he has a huge advantage in money. Yes the outside groups supporting him also have deep pockets and are clearly willing to unleash the negativity on Gingrich and other rivals. However, until Romney solves his problem with conservatives, particularly those on the Religious Right, the GOP primary will last for several more weeks - especially heading into Super Tuesday and beyond where a number of Southern states will hold primaries - the kind of political landscape Gingrich should do well in.

More importantly, should he be the nominee, unless Romney solves his conservative problem, he will struggle in the general election where you must turn out your base in order to have a chance at winning. The fact that Florida GOP voters stayed home in droves yesterday indicates a base that has yet to warm - any may never warm - to Romney or his fellow GOP candidates.

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Romney and Iowa: When a Victory is Not a Victory

Politico Arena Topic: Iowa a win, loss, or draw for Romney?

Mitt Romney’s eight vote margin of victory is very disappointing for a candidate with a huge edge in money and name recognition. His 2012 vote percentage (25%) was roughly the same as 2008—this despite the fact that he never stopped campaigning for president. Romney is a flawed frontrunner who cannot break through with conservatives. He will likely do well in New Hampshire given the fact that he owns a home there (of course, where doesn’t he own a home?) and was governor of a neighboring state. South Carolina, however, will represent a huge reality-check for Romney where conservatives will rule the day.

The real story of the night was the performance of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Not exactly a household name among the Republican electorate, Santorum had very little cash or organization. His late surge in the polls and surprise tie is evidence that conservatives are desperately searching for an alternative to Romney. Other conservatives such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich peaked early but faded because they had too many personal or professional peccadilloes. Santorum was aided by good timing, peaking at the right time. His tie will mean that the bright lights will now shine on Santorum and we’ll see how he holds up. Santorum’s strong performance also will translate in to cold hard cash as conservatives will open the checkbook for their new standard-bearer, especially if Perry and Bachmann have been knocked out of the race.

Finally, Representative Ron Paul’s strong third place showing gives him momentum going to New Hampshire where independents and more moderate voters will buoy his campaign. Paul’s supporters are the most loyal of any of the candidates in the GOP field and Paul is in the race for the long haul. In fact, a third-party or independent general election candidacy for Ron Paul is a significant possibility if he continues to perform well in the primary season but falls short of the GOP nomination.

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Fleeing the Gingrich Titanic

Politico Arena Topic: End of the Line for Newt Gingrich?

Having a top staffer quit a campaign in protest is a problem. Having a few quit is a crisis. Having the entire team quit is a catastrophe -- a sign that the ship is about to strike the iceberg and the rodents know better than to stay on board.

Since I am not on the inside, I have no idea whether this is the end of the Gingrich campaign. It is certainly at a crossroads, however. None of the Republican candidates have gotten off to a shakier start than Gingrich. From his Ryan budget comments to his Tiffany debt to his Mediterranean cruise, Newt Gingrich the candidate has misfired from the start. From the outside, it appears that these seasoned campaign professionals were tired of dealing with this unconventional candidate who refused to take advice or be handled in anyway. Though his campaign may yet survive, Gingrich's odds of winning the GOP nomination just dropped even more.

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