Romney and Iowa: When a Victory is Not a Victory

Politico Arena Topic: Iowa a win, loss, or draw for Romney?

Mitt Romney’s eight vote margin of victory is very disappointing for a candidate with a huge edge in money and name recognition. His 2012 vote percentage (25%) was roughly the same as 2008—this despite the fact that he never stopped campaigning for president. Romney is a flawed frontrunner who cannot break through with conservatives. He will likely do well in New Hampshire given the fact that he owns a home there (of course, where doesn’t he own a home?) and was governor of a neighboring state. South Carolina, however, will represent a huge reality-check for Romney where conservatives will rule the day.

The real story of the night was the performance of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Not exactly a household name among the Republican electorate, Santorum had very little cash or organization. His late surge in the polls and surprise tie is evidence that conservatives are desperately searching for an alternative to Romney. Other conservatives such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich peaked early but faded because they had too many personal or professional peccadilloes. Santorum was aided by good timing, peaking at the right time. His tie will mean that the bright lights will now shine on Santorum and we’ll see how he holds up. Santorum’s strong performance also will translate in to cold hard cash as conservatives will open the checkbook for their new standard-bearer, especially if Perry and Bachmann have been knocked out of the race.

Finally, Representative Ron Paul’s strong third place showing gives him momentum going to New Hampshire where independents and more moderate voters will buoy his campaign. Paul’s supporters are the most loyal of any of the candidates in the GOP field and Paul is in the race for the long haul. In fact, a third-party or independent general election candidacy for Ron Paul is a significant possibility if he continues to perform well in the primary season but falls short of the GOP nomination.

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Throwing Kisses While The Ship Sets Sail

Politico Arena Topic: Has Sarah Palin been eclipsed?

The ship has left the port and is sailing out to sea. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and others boarded awhile ago. Rick Perry, realizing the ship was leaving, finally jumped from shore and climbed aboard. Sarah Palin, though, is still waving and throwing kisses to the crowd even while the TV crews keep reminding her the ship is moving towards the horizon.

We all know that she claims to live by her own rules, but there are some rules you can’t invent—real tangible ballot deadlines and intangible fundraising windows. A serious candidate for the presidency pays attention to such things. And frankly, even if she were to somehow get on that ship, there may be nowhere for her to stand at this point.

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Praying Away the Debt Ceiling

Politico Arena Topic: Debt Ceiling: Looming Catastrophe or Y2K Redux?

To default on America’s debt is a path this country has never taken nor should it. Most experts on this topic argue that the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling would be catastrophic. Do members of Congress really want to test out their chicken little theory that nothing will happen should the ceiling not be raised?

As far as Michele Bachmann is concerned, this just proves that she is not a serious candidate for president. I suppose the country can just pray away the debt-ceiling crisis just like clients in the counseling clinic owned by her husband and herself can pray away their gayness.

Advantage: Bachmann

Politico Arena Topic: Is Bachmann a Threat to Palin?

While both women profess to have much admiration for each other, they clearly occupy much of the same political space dominated by Tea Party folks and Christian conservatives. Expect elbows to start flying.

Though Sarah Palin commands the name recognition, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is a fresh face who has a rabid following among the small government crowd. Bachmann also does not carry around the personal baggage that Palin does. Whether Bachmann will wilt in the sunlight as the media glare becomes more intense is another question. Advantage: Bachmann.

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Mama Grizzly: Out of Her Cave

Politico Arena Topic: Is Palin-mania Dying Out?

Don’t worry, Mama Grizzly was just hibernating for a spot. While she was resting she saw interlopers Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump getting all the attention by committing Mama Grizzly-type gaffes and making Mama Grizzly-style outlandish statements. That woke her out of her slumber. Mama Grizzly and her pack are back now, on the prowl. The big game-following media will have no problem spotting her from now on…

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