Romney and Iowa: When a Victory is Not a Victory

Politico Arena Topic: Iowa a win, loss, or draw for Romney?

Mitt Romney’s eight vote margin of victory is very disappointing for a candidate with a huge edge in money and name recognition. His 2012 vote percentage (25%) was roughly the same as 2008—this despite the fact that he never stopped campaigning for president. Romney is a flawed frontrunner who cannot break through with conservatives. He will likely do well in New Hampshire given the fact that he owns a home there (of course, where doesn’t he own a home?) and was governor of a neighboring state. South Carolina, however, will represent a huge reality-check for Romney where conservatives will rule the day.

The real story of the night was the performance of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Not exactly a household name among the Republican electorate, Santorum had very little cash or organization. His late surge in the polls and surprise tie is evidence that conservatives are desperately searching for an alternative to Romney. Other conservatives such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich peaked early but faded because they had too many personal or professional peccadilloes. Santorum was aided by good timing, peaking at the right time. His tie will mean that the bright lights will now shine on Santorum and we’ll see how he holds up. Santorum’s strong performance also will translate in to cold hard cash as conservatives will open the checkbook for their new standard-bearer, especially if Perry and Bachmann have been knocked out of the race.

Finally, Representative Ron Paul’s strong third place showing gives him momentum going to New Hampshire where independents and more moderate voters will buoy his campaign. Paul’s supporters are the most loyal of any of the candidates in the GOP field and Paul is in the race for the long haul. In fact, a third-party or independent general election candidacy for Ron Paul is a significant possibility if he continues to perform well in the primary season but falls short of the GOP nomination.

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Skipping a Presidential Rite of Passage

Politico Arena Topic: Perry's Debate Skipping a Bad Move?

Dictionary.com defines “coward” as “a person who lacks courage in facing danger, difficulty, opposition, pain, etc.” These are not exactly the qualities one looks for in a president and Rick Perry’s opponents will label him a coward should he skip future GOP primary debates. And with good reason. Debates matter. They are an important showcase for a candidate’s intellect (or lack thereof), their knowledge of important policy issues, their ability to think under pressure, and their temperament. Few people, if pressed to answer honestly, look forward to debating on a large public stage. The pressure is immense and the stakes couldn’t be higher—one flub can sink a campaign. But it is a rite of passage every presidential candidate must go through.


As someone who has spent the last several election cycles organizing debates for statewide office and Congress, I can attest first hand that campaigns and candidates frequently refuse to debate, or at least are very, very reluctant. This was especially a problem in the 2010 election cycle when internal polling showed that many of these candidates had large leads and were coasting to reelection. But the key is that the candidates knew they were ahead in the polls and did not need to debate to win. Rick Perry does not enjoy that luxury. Though expected to be the frontrunner if he got into the race, Perry is anything but and his lackluster debate performance has been one of the reasons for this. However, skipping debates is not the answer to Perry turning around his campaign—improving his performance in the debates and demonstrating to America and the punditocracy that he has the qualities we look for in a president. Just having “governor” on your resume is not proof that you are qualified (just ask Sarah Palin)—you have to earn the public’s and media’s respect and trust that you could handle the job. Cutting and running from the debate stage simply destroys that credibility.

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Throwing Kisses While The Ship Sets Sail

Politico Arena Topic: Has Sarah Palin been eclipsed?

The ship has left the port and is sailing out to sea. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and others boarded awhile ago. Rick Perry, realizing the ship was leaving, finally jumped from shore and climbed aboard. Sarah Palin, though, is still waving and throwing kisses to the crowd even while the TV crews keep reminding her the ship is moving towards the horizon.

We all know that she claims to live by her own rules, but there are some rules you can’t invent—real tangible ballot deadlines and intangible fundraising windows. A serious candidate for the presidency pays attention to such things. And frankly, even if she were to somehow get on that ship, there may be nowhere for her to stand at this point.

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Lone Star Secession

Texas Governor Rick Perry certainly made news the other day at one of those tea party rallies. Not only did he protest big government and taxes, he started talking about the "S" word--secession. Yes, the governor of America's second largest state began waxing poetic about Texas leaving the union:

"'Texas is a unique place,'" the governor told reporters in Austin. "'When we came into the union in 1845, one of the issues was that we would be able to leave if we decided to do that. My hope is that America, and Washington in particular, pays attention. We’ve got a great union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that? But Texas is a very unique place, and we’re a pretty independent lot, to boot.'"

Most scholars think the talk of secession is just political hot air aimed at positioning Perry for a primary fight against fellow Republican Senator Kay Bailey Huchison:

"A&M professor Walter L. Buenger is a fifth-generation Texan and author of a textbook on Texas’ last secession attempt. (The federal occupation lasted eight years after the Civil War.)
'It was a mistake then, and it’s an even bigger mistake now,' Buenger said by phone from College Station, where he has taught almost since Perry was an Aggie yell leader. 'And you can put this in the paper: To even bring it up shows a profound lack of patriotism,' Buenger said. The 1845 joint merger agreement with Congress didn’t give Texas an option clause. The idea of leaving 'was settled long ago,' he said. 'This is simple rabble-rousing and political posturing. That’s all it is.  . . .  Our governor is now identifying himself with the far-right lunatic fringe.'"

If Texas does eventually decide to seceed, the Federal Government won't just wish them well. And, it wouldn't turn out very well for them. But public opinion in Texas is clearly not with the secessionists: 75% of Texans want to stay while only 18% want to leave. Still, I'm amazed that 1 out of 5 would opt for Texas secession...