Obama's Smaller Playing Field in 2012

Politico Arena Topic: What Are Obama's Chances in North Carolina in 2012?

In 2008, capturing traditionally red states like North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana was the icing on the cake for the Obama campaign. In 2012, unless there is a significant economic rebound, the Obama campaign will have a much smaller playing field to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

The good news for Team Obama is that border states like North Carolina are not must-wins. Even subtracting North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and the more traditional battleground state of Florida from the 2008 map still yields an Obama victory with some wiggle room built in.

Though Democrats would like an expanded electoral map in 2012, the political environment has shifted from 2008. If anything, 2012 may look much more like 2004 than 2008, with the election being decided by a handful of states in the Upper Midwest, a couple in the West, and the big three of Florida, Pennsylvania, and most especially Ohio.

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Where My Students Are Now: Emma Lieberth

I've been teaching a over 10 years at The University of Akron and have had the pleasure to mentor many, many students. In fact, probably the most gratifying part of my job is the ability to positively (I hope) impact the lives of my students. Well, many of those students have gone on to bigger and better things, especially in the political world. This post is the first of a series of posts (I hope) highlighting the careers of some of the students (and colleagues) with whom I have worked. The posts will be in basic question/answer format based on questions I emailed out. I hope the 9 of you who regularly read this blog enjoy it.

Interview with Emma Lieberth

WHEN ATTENDED UNIVERSITY OF AKRON OR HOW ARE YOU AFFILIATED WITH THE BLISS INSTITUTE? I Graduated in 2006 with a degree in polisci/criminal justice, certificate in applied politics.

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE SINCE? After graduating in Dec. 2006, I moved to Iowa to work on Tom Vilsack's Presidential Campaign. A few weeks after I went out there, the former Governor of Iowa withdrew from the race. Shortly after, I was hired as a field organizer for Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign. I worked in Iowa through the 2008 caucuses and then I worked in Nevada, Ohio, and Indiana before leaving the campaign in May 2008. I moved to Washington, DC and started working with the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence where I'm currently employed. I'm starting my Masters in Public Administration at George Mason University this fall.

WHERE DO YOU ULTIMATELY HOPE TO BE WHEN YOU REACH THE PINNACLE OF YOUR CAREER? New opportunities come up all the time so I'm not sure, but hopefully working for a cause that I really care about.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz: A Fighter, Not a Sideline Gazer

Politico Arena Topic: DNC Leader Help or Hinderance?

Being surprised that Debbie Wasserman Schultz is outspoken is like being surprised that Lindsay Lohan is in rehab or that Brett Favre has un-retired. It’s what she’s known for and, in fact, one of the reasons she was tapped by the Obama team.

It hasn’t been a flawless beginning by any means but one should never bet against Wasserman Schultz. After all, this is a woman that has risen to the highest ranks in her party’s leadership, become a household name in the world of politics, and raised her three small children all while secretly battling breast cancer and continuing to perform her day job as a Florida Congresswoman. Wasserman Schultz is a fighter, not a sideline gazer and never will be. After the electoral “shellacking” of 2010 and with the 2012 presidential election upon us, some fight is exactly what the Democratic Party needs.

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Fleeing the Gingrich Titanic

Politico Arena Topic: End of the Line for Newt Gingrich?

Having a top staffer quit a campaign in protest is a problem. Having a few quit is a crisis. Having the entire team quit is a catastrophe -- a sign that the ship is about to strike the iceberg and the rodents know better than to stay on board.

Since I am not on the inside, I have no idea whether this is the end of the Gingrich campaign. It is certainly at a crossroads, however. None of the Republican candidates have gotten off to a shakier start than Gingrich. From his Ryan budget comments to his Tiffany debt to his Mediterranean cruise, Newt Gingrich the candidate has misfired from the start. From the outside, it appears that these seasoned campaign professionals were tired of dealing with this unconventional candidate who refused to take advice or be handled in anyway. Though his campaign may yet survive, Gingrich's odds of winning the GOP nomination just dropped even more.

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Hubris, Arrogance, and Stupidity in the Fish Bowl

Politico Arena Topic: Sex Scandals Ruining Congress's Image?

Since the days of Mark Twain, Congress has had an image problem. That image problem is particularly great today. In a Gallup Poll from the summer of 2010, only 7% of citizens said they had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress—dead last among all societal institutions including the presidency and Supreme Court. The seemingly unending ethics scandals of members of congress (both active and former) of both parties further erodes the confidence of the American public. And the fact that the dirty details of text messages, tweets, and photos is readily available for public assumption, exacerbates the problem and increases the cynicism with which the American public views the legislative branch and government in general.

The hubris, arrogance, and stupidity of some in the political class never fails to surprise, amuse, and sicken me all at once. It’s bad enough that they engage in morally bankrupt behavior hurting their marriages and sometimes destroying their families. That so many behave this way despite living in a fish bowl, is shocking.

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Lawrence Eagleburger, Professional Diplomat, R.I.P.

Lawrence Eagleburger, a longtime diplomat and former Secretary of State during the George H.W. Bush Administration, passed away at the age of 80. A Milwaukee, Wisconsin native, he was the first career foreign service officer to rise to the post. For those of us who came of age during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, Eagleburger was a constant presence in the media as Secretary of State James Baker's deputy during that period.

Perhaps his toughest assignment was when he was tasked with convincing Israel to not retaliate during the Persian Gulf War as Iraqi scud missiles rained down on that country. He succeeded thus keeping the delicate coalition together that was constructed by President Bush to remove Iraq from Kuwait. Here is how the New York Times described his efforts:

"During the first Bush presidency, Mr. Eagleburger was second in command at the State Department under James A. Baker III, and because of his previous experience in the Middle East as Mr. Kissinger’s aide, he was sent on a delicate mission to Israel in 1991, at the start of the Persian Gulf war, which had been mounted to eject Iraq from Kuwait. Mr. Eagleburger’s task was to persuade the Israelis under Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir to stay out of the fight, even though Iraqi Scud missiles were landing in Israel. The United States was concerned then, as it would be 12 years later in the war in Iraq, that Israel not be seen as a military partner, fearing that such a perception would alienate Arab and Muslim states willing to help. His success eventually led to his appointment as secretary of state."

He was one of the smartest foreign policy guys around. He will be missed.

Eugene Allen: A White House Butler's Amazing Journey

Last year, one of my students gave me a copy of a Washington Post article about a former White House butler who passed away March 31, 2010, who had worked at the White House for 34 years. It got buried in a pile of papers. I unearthed it and am very glad I did. The man's name was Eugene Allen and his story is fascinating. Allen, an African-American, grew up in Virginia during segregation. Working in the White House, he witnessed many of the pivotal historical moments of the 20th Century and was on hand in 2009 for the swearing-in of America's first president of color: Barack Obama.

Allen started at the White House in Harry Truman's last year: "In 1952, a lady told him of a job opening in the White House. 'I wasn't even looking for a job,' he says. 'I was happy where I was working, but she told me to go on over there and meet with a guy by the name of Alonzo Fields.' Fields was a maitre d', and he immediately liked Allen. Allen was offered a job as a 'pantry man.' He washed dishes, stocked cabinets and shined silverware. He started at $2,400 a year. There was, in time, a promotion to butler. 'Shook the hand of all the presidents I ever worked for,' he says.

Allen retired in 1986 after having served eight presidents. His tenure spanned many great moments in history, both for the country and himself. Perhaps his highest moment happened when he and his wife Helen attended a State Dinner as guests of the Reagan: "First lady Nancy Reagan came looking for him one afternoon, and Mr. Allen wondered whether he or a member of his staff had done something wrong. She assured him that he had not but also told him that his services would not be needed at the upcoming state dinner for German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Mr. Allen tensed, wondering why. "She said, 'You and Helene are coming to the state dinner as guests of President Reagan and myself,'... Mr. Allen thought he was the first butler to receive an invitation to a state dinner."

Read both WaPo articles linked above for more details on Allen's amazing career and life. It is a fascinating read about a fascinating man and his journey.

John Edwards: Beyond the Pale

The Daily Show - On Topic: Scandal-List - John Edwards
Tags: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

Politico Arena Topic: John Edwards Indicted: Can His Legacy be Rehabbed?

Americans are a very forgiving lot, but not in this instance. John Edwards’s political career is toast as the gory details make Arnold Schwarzenegger and John Ensign look like choir boys.

Having an affair and a love child when your spouse is battling terminal cancer is beyond the pale. Compounding the heinousness of this act is the fact that he allegedly misused campaign funds to conceal the affair and child ... all while running for president. It is hard to comprehend the incredible selfishness of an individual who not only engages in infidelity while his wife is dying, but chooses to run for president knowing full well that his behavior may be exposed, putting the country and his political party at great risk, not to mention his family.

It simply boggles the mind.

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'Weinergate' and the Brave New World of 21st Century Politics

The Daily Show - The Big Wang Theory
Tags: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

Politico Arena Topic: 'Weinergate' a Cautionary Tale?

The Anthony Weiner Twitter incident will certainly serve as a cautionary tale about the risks of social networking. Most Americans are at risk of having their email and social networking accounts hacked and their personal information stolen. It is a fact of life and elected officials are no different.

However, in the brave new world of 21st century politics, Twitter, Facebook, and other modes of social networking have become a necessity for elected officials and candidates looking for a way to connect with generations of constituents and voters who utilize that technology daily. Social networking allows politicos the ability to connect absent the media filter — and to do so cheaply and often. Especially for those politicos who seek to develop a broad base of support beyond their geographic constituency, social networking is crucial.

The Weiner Twitter incident will have little impact on the use of social networking by politicos; in fact, more and more politicos will be expected to utilize social networking technologies as time marches on.

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Advantage: Bachmann

Politico Arena Topic: Is Bachmann a Threat to Palin?

While both women profess to have much admiration for each other, they clearly occupy much of the same political space dominated by Tea Party folks and Christian conservatives. Expect elbows to start flying.

Though Sarah Palin commands the name recognition, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is a fresh face who has a rabid following among the small government crowd. Bachmann also does not carry around the personal baggage that Palin does. Whether Bachmann will wilt in the sunlight as the media glare becomes more intense is another question. Advantage: Bachmann.

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Nancy Pelosi: Yesterday's News or Perfect Foil?

Politico Arena Topic: Pelosi Effective Foil for GOP?

Republican attack ads using Nancy Pelosi as the villain will be about as effective as Democratic ads were in 2010 which starred George W. Bush—not very. Pelosi is yesterday’s news. Informed voters know that Democrats no longer run the House and that the only real puppet masters of that institution have “Speaker” or “Chairman” in their title. Ill-informed voters don’t remember who the heck Pelosi is at this point since she is no longer an obsession of the Washington media.

It is interesting that Republicans would cart out Pelosi as a foil in the race for North Carolina’s 11th District and I’m sure the Shuler reelection campaign is loving it. After all, Heath Shuler’s constituents will no doubt be treated to numerous pro-Shuler ads showing that he ran against Pelosi for the Minority Leader post. All the GOP ads serve to do is demonstrate that Shuler is an independent thinker—while most of Shuler’s colleagues supported Pelosi’s election, Shuler established through his words and action that he was willing to challenge his party’s leadership and progressive wing. Shuler should send the NRCC a thank you card for helping publicize his case and making the GOP look foolish all at once.

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Area 51: A Military Base Which Does Not Officially Exist

I was driving home from work today and tuned into a story on NPR's Fresh Air about a new book about Area 51. The book, Area 51: An Uncensored History of America's Top Secret Military Base, was written by Annie Jacobson, an editor at Los Angeles Times Magazine. The interview was mesmerizing and covered a variety of subjects. I haven't read the book yet but if it's anything like the show today, I expect it is damn good.

Here is an excerpt from the book: "Area 51 is the nation's most secret domestic military facility. It is located in the high desert of southern Nevada, seventy-five Miles north of Las Vegas. Its facilities have been constructed over the past sixty years around a flat, dry lake bed called Groom Lake. The U.S. government has never admitted it exists. Key to understanding Area 51 is knowing that it sits inside the largest government-controlled land parcel in the United States, the Nevada Test and Training Range. Encompassing 4,687 square miles, this area is just a little smaller than the state of Connecticut — three times the size of Rhode Island, and more than twice as big as Delaware. Set inside this enormous expanse is a smaller parcel of land, 1,350 square miles, called the Nevada Test Site, the only facility like it in the continental United States. Beginning in 1951, on the orders of President Harry Truman, 105 nuclear weapons were exploded above ground at the site and another 828 were exploded underground in tunnel chambers and deep, vertical shafts. The last nuclear weapons test on American soil occurred at the Nevada Test Site on September 23, 1992. The facility contains the largest amount of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium in the United States not secured inside a nuclear laboratory."