Friday, April 1, 2011

John Boehner: Between a Rock and a Hard Place


Politico Arena Topic: Boehner Cornered by GOP Frosh?

Speaker of the House John Boehner is caught between a rock and a hard place and Democrats have purposely placed him in that uncomfortable position. After all, with the GOP demanding $60+ billion in cuts and Democrats willing to meet them halfway, in a normal time and place a deal would get quickly done. But this is not a normal time we live in and the political waters are more toxic than the cast members’ hair on Jersey Shore. The pressure on Boehner and establishment Republicans from Tea Party freshman in the House is especially intense.

In the end, however, a government shutdown could be a catastrophe for the GOP especially given the Democrats public willingness to meet them halfway. Establishment Republicans also remember how they were blamed for two government shutdowns during the Clinton era. Boehner and the House leadership know these things all too well. My best guess is that Boehner will cobble together enough votes to pass a FY2011 budget acceptable to Democrats and the White House either before a shutdown or shortly thereafter. To do otherwise would court disaster for the GOP as current polling has shown that the brief romance the American public had with the GOP during the 2010 election is over. It is in everyone’s interests, except perhaps House Tea Party folks hell-bent on making a name for themselves, to put the FY2011 budget crisis behind them so they can begin the same exercise for the FY2012 budget.

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3 comments:

Craig Wesson said...

Me again, back to cause problems in my own bizarre, humorous way. This time, however, I’d like to sum up events as they pertain to the bigger picture.

In short, I’ll agree, Boehner will most likely compromise before a government shutdown takes place. In a more recent press conference he hinted that he wants to do everything he can to avoid a shutdown. And let’s face it, the man cries in the face of adversity more often than Sailor Moon. But it’s the establishment Republicans who are more likely o give in. For whatever reason the rules for political conduct have been written by the left and the republican elites need to obey if they want to keep getting dinner invitations. Meanwhile the rest of us who actually care are portrayed as torch-wielding mobs out of a bad Frankenstein movie. On the other hand, compromise is an important thing in our political system and can’t be dismissed so easily. They say there was compromise in the passing of the new Healthcare law, kind of like how someone compromises with their steak at the Outback. Realistically though, The GOP will be lucky to get 60 billion cut from the budget, pursuing any more will lose them all the support they had in 2010. Once you get a population addicted to free money, they don’t like giving it away. Representative Paul Ryan is set to reveal a proposal to cut even more from the budget and I suspect the media will be all over that like Glenn Beck on Goldline. For now though, I think I’ll just watch the spending continue until the country gets outperformed by our Eastern counterparts. Doesn’t bother me, half the stuff I use is Chinese and I only watch Japanese Anime on the television anymore. Now, if reading this hasn’t totally weirded you out I’ll recap my prediction that Boehner will do whatever it takes to avoid a shutdown, including compromise.

DC said...

Craig--welcome back. Yeah, if I was a bettin' man, I'd bet that we get a agreement right before the deadline. There's too much to lose if it doesn't happen...

DW said...

I wouldn't hold your breath. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it is mighty darn close. Traditional institutional republicans have ceded every political fight to the more conservative in their ranks and I have no reason to believe that they won't do so again.

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