McConnell's Plan Out of the Wilderness

Politico Arena Topic: Would McConnell Plan Punt Debt Solution?

At least a version of McConnell's plan could potentially pass, though a number of tea party brand House members have indicated that they would not vote to raise the debt ceiling regardless. At this point, some members of Congress view the McConnell plan as the only way out of the wilderness.

If McConnell's plan passed largely intact, it is an ingenious way to allow the country to avoid defaulting at the same time absolving Republicans of any responsibility over raising the debt ceiling by forcing the president to act unilaterally. The 2/3 vote requirement for Congress to reject such presidential moves would virtually ensure that President Obama would be able to raise the debt ceiling while all Republicans could vote against that - and what a gift that would be for the GOP for the 2012 elections. Because of this, I would be stunned if Harry Reid and the White House would support a plan that does not force Republicans to have some skin in the game as well.

President Obama would be better off invoking the 14th Amendment, unilaterally raising the debt ceiling, and using the bully pulpit to tell the country he had to take charge because Congress is dysfunctional and many members are more interested in their own political future than what is good for the American people. It wouldn't be too hard to convince Americans of that considering the events of the last few weeks.

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Cantor's Clout

Politico Arena Topic: Should Speaker Boehner Watch His Back?

I think John Boehner truly wants to get a big deal done—the $4 trillion grand bargain—which could calm the financial markets and go a long way toward paying down America’s debt. He said as much last week. Boehner must of figured that as Speaker of the House, he was the leader of his party in the House. That’s clearly not the case. Majority Leader Eric Cantor, his second in command, is the guy in charge. After throwing Boehner under the bus by pulling out of the debt ceiling talks a couple weeks ago, Cantor is leading the charge for a smaller deal that would include zero compromise on the revenue side—no tax increases on the wealthy, no closing of tax loopholes, nothing with the word “tax” in it unless it is followed by the word “cut”. The Cantor-led GOP will agree to nothing unless they get all of what they want. At a White House meeting yesterday, Cantor did most of the talking—indicative of his new found clout.



The White House knows the GOP position is unreasonable and will exploit it. President Obama will take to the bully pulpit and Democratic surrogates will hit the airwaves and hammer the Republicans for protecting the wealthy at the expense of the middle and working classes. Democrats have already agreed to make painful cuts in popular entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. What pain are Republicans willing to dole out to their benefactors? If Cantor and his crowd get their way: none. Fear of Tea Party primary challenges and Grover Norquist overwhelm any ability of most in the GOP caucus to strike a reasonable deal. Boehner was right to seek the Grand Bargain—it would have been good for the country and his party. Unfortunately, he way overestimated his own ability to deliver.

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RIP Betty Ford

First Lady Betty Ford, widow of President Gerald Ford, passed away July 8, 2011. She was 93. She was a pathbreaking First Lady and beloved by many.

According to Reid Epstein of Politico: "After her husband elevated to the presidency following Richard Nixon’s 1974 resignation, Ford campaigned for the Equal Rights Amendment, legal abortion and spoke openly of her battle with breast cancer. For these efforts, she was one of 12 women named as Time magazine’s Women of the Year for 1975."

He continues: "Her longest lasting legacy will be the Betty Ford Center for drug and alcohol rehabilition in Rancho Mirage, Calif. Ford founded the center in 1982 after her own battle with alcohol abuse and prescription medication. It has become the substance rehabilitation center for celebrities ranging from Mickey Mantle to Elizabeth Taylor. For years after the facility opened, Ford greeted each patient individually, telling them about her path to recovery from addiction to alcohol and pain medication."

"It's Much Easier to Tweet from the Seated Position"

A historic first today: President Obama hosted a real time Twitter town hall. If anyone doubts the power of social media, the sight of an American president using a laptop and answering questions tweeted from citizens should put those doubts to rest. We indeed live in a brave new world. Surreal.

Will the White House Call Their Bluff?

Politico Arena Topic: Do Oil Companies Deserve Tax Breaks?

Eliminating tax loopholes has to be part of the equation if the Obama White House and Democrats are going to agree to cut spending as part of a debt ceiling/deficit reduction agreement. Groups like the Club for Growth will howl that elimination of tax loopholes is equivalent to raising taxes. It’s not. The average American tax payer doesn’t have the luxury of benefitting from loopholes. But Big Oil does and their $38 billion in profits for the first three months of 2011 at a time when Americans can barely afford to fill up their gas tanks is an indication that things are way out of balance.

Cutting of domestic spending will no doubt affect middle and working class folks. Elimination of tax loopholes would largely impact upper class folks and Corporate America. Shouldn’t the sacrifice be spread out? If Republicans choose to draw a line in the sand and stand with Big Oil, hedge fund managers, and corporate jet owners, the majority of the American public will stand on the other side of that line. Democrats and the Obama White House know they have the upper hand. But will they call their bluff?

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Thaddeus McCotter: Strumming His Way to the White House?

Politico Arena Topic: Will Thaddeus McCotter Catch Fire?

Michigan's Thaddeus McCotter is not your typical cookie-cutter Republican. He is at odds with his party at times on such issues as free trade and unions. A passionate defender of America's automakers, McCotter is a 21st century politician known for his tweeting, guitar playing (he is in a bipartisan band called the Second Amendments that plays for the troops from time to time), pop culture references, and beyond the bullet point commentary.

McCotter faces a steep uphill climb. He has virtually no name recognition outside his district and little money to help change that. Also, House members have always done poorly in their bids for the White House. The last sitting member of that body to be elected president was Ohio's James Garfield in 1880 and he was a dark horse compromise candidate who had already been appointed to the Senate when his party came calling. With two other better-known House members in the race already, McCotter will need to make a big splash and quick if he is to get any traction. If he sticks around for awhile, McCotter should make for interesting copy.

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Recess is Over

Politico Arena Topic: President Obama: Scolder-in-Chief?

Congressional Republicans have been doing more than just acting like children with regard to the debt ceiling--to play a game of political chicken with the nation’s debt limit is extremely irresponsible. At no time in our nation’s history has a political party held the country’s debt ceiling hostage to ideological demands. Previous Democratic and Republican presidents and congresses have acted responsibly by raising the debt ceiling when needed. True, at times they waited until the last possible moment but at no time did recalcitrant lawmakers threaten that if they did not get their way - and only their way - that they would allow the United States government to default on their its debt obligations.

The fact that President Obama has been forced into the middle of negotiations should be victory enough for the GOP because he will now be forced to cut a deficit-reducing deal and may pay a political cost for it - especially if negotiations go badly. The Obama administration would have been better off insisting on a clean debt limit vote, saving deficit reduction for budget negotiations. Now both parties must negotiate with the added pressure of an August 2 guillotine hanging over the heads.

Finally, I think it is apropos that President Obama compare his kids to the GOP leadership. After all, it was House Majority Leader Cantor who took his ball and went home last week after negotiations did not go as he planned. Hopefully his actions haven’t soiled the sandbox too much for the other kids.

Recess is over (and the GOP should probably think twice about going on another one this weekend). It’s time to get to work and understand that in a negotiation, both sides need to get something. Clearly the House majority leader and many of his Republican colleagues do not understand that concept.

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Boehner Gets Tossed Under Bus By Cantor on Debt-Ceiling Talks

Politico Arena Topic: Eric Cantor Gutsy or 'Gutless' on Debt-Talk Walkout?

Will Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) be able to cut a deal with the White House and Senate Democrats without angering his base? Short answer: no way. It looks as if the House Majority Leader has thrown his fellow leader under the bus on the debt ceiling talks. The fact that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) did not consult with or inform the speaker of his intentions to withdraw from the negotiations until he went public, reveals a major rift in the House GOP leadership. Boehner and Cantor may not be exchanging holiday cards with one another this year.

If Boehner succeeds in closing a deal with Obama and the Dems, that deal will likely include elimination of some tax breaks to big oil and other special interests — something Republicans are loathe to do and the Speaker will get crucified from conservatives for this. Boehner will also face opposition from the tea party and small government crowd who are flat out against raising the debt ceiling despite the economic chaos that will likely happen if those efforts fail. And if Boehner fails to cut a deal, he’ll be blamed for that as well. He is in a box alone, courtesy of Cantor and company.

Though Republicans are calling for President Obama to get involved to jump start negotiations, this is a merely a political ploy to force the president to put some skin in the game that can be used against him in 2012. The White House would be better served to let the president concentrate on using the bully pulpit to hammer the GOP on this issue. Meanwhile, Vice President Biden can continue to hold negotiations out of public view.

In the end, all Americans should hope this game of political chicken being played ends soon. The markets don’t like uncertainty. And if it ends badly, uncertainty will reign supreme.

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The Constitutional Ambiguity of the Presidential Autopen

A great article by Mark Knoller of CBS News about the controversy surrounding the presidential autopen. Knoller observes that:

"For the first time in U.S. history, Mr. Obama authorized the use of such a machine to sign a bill into law. On May 26th, he was 3700 miles away at the G8 Summit in France, up against a midnight deadline to prevent provisions of the Patriot Act from expiring, so he authorized the White House Staff Secretary the use the autopen to sign it. The problem is - and few proclaim they see a problem - is that the U.S. Constitution makes no provision for the use of a signature machine. Article 1, Section 7 clearly states that if a bill is passed by both the House and Senate, it shall be presented to the president. "If he approve(s) he shall sign it," states the Constitution. There's nothing in the document that suggests a reasonable facsimile affixed by an appliance will do just as well. The White House circumvented the constitutional requirement citing a 2005 opinion from the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel. It concluded that '...the President need not personally perform the physical act of affixing his signature to a bill he approves and decides to sign in order for the bill to become law.'"

There have been few objections to this, save for a small group of members of Congress. It does bring up serious questions, however: "Congressman Tom Graves, R-Ga., worries what might happen if the president is hospitalized or otherwise in a state of diminished capacity. '...Can a group of aggressive Cabinet members interpret a wink or a squeeze of the hand as approval of an autopen signing?' says Graves. 'I am very concerned about what this means for future presidential orders, whether they be signing bills into law, military orders, or executive orders.'

It will be interesting to see if the autopen controversy ends up in the courts or if presidents will go out of their way to avoid this controversy. Of course, with advances in technology, presidents will likely performing more official duties via remote like this, not less.

[Signature on left is autopen; signature on right is real Obama signature. Photo Credit: CBS]

The Tweeting of the Presidency

Who would have thought 20 years ago that a president would not only be using the Internet, but using it to directly communicate with individual citizens? President Obama is not only the first president to use a smartphone as president, he is the first to personally "tweet" messages to his followers on Twitter. Sure, the White House already had a presence on Twitter as well as Facebook; however, Obama is the first sitting president to pen tweets himself.

According to the New York Times: "Over the weekend, President Obama did something his Internet fans have long dreamed of: He sent a Father’s Day message in his own words via the @BarackObama Twitter account. The 122-character tweet was also posted to the Barack Obama page on Facebook. 'Being a father is sometimes my hardest but always my most rewarding job,' the President said. 'Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. –BO' Going forward, any messages signed '-BO' will be written by the President himself, rather than a staffer, according to an announcement posted Friday at BarackObama.com, the official Web site of the President’s re-election campaign."

The Obama campaign of 2008 really was the first 21st Century campaign in terms of they utilized social media. Clearly 2012 will raise the bar higher. And as we go forward, future presidents and candidates will be expected to utilize social media and advanced communications techniques to get their message out and connect with the American voter and citizen.

No Better Nor Worse

Politico Arena Topic: Should Obama Donors Get Plum Government Jobs?

The Obama administration is no better nor worse than preceding administrations when it comes to offering plum governmental posts to big money donors. The problem is the campaign finance system itself. It is broken. The amount of money needed to get elected to any national office is staggering. Even local offices such as school board and city council require oodles of money. At no time in American history has money been more important to running a successful campaign — especially for the White House.
Once elected, officeholders feel beholden to the donors they needed to get there. And with good reason — without them they don’t get elected. Obama and McCain combined to raise more than $1.1 billion in 2008. The two general election candidates may surpass $2 billion in 2012. And much of that money will come from big money donors and bundlers, not every day folk writing $25 checks. Until the system is fixed — really fixed — big donors will continue reap the benefits of their fundraising prowess. It’s just the way it is.

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Jobs and Education are Social Issues

A brilliant commentary by Jason Huff about how jobs and education are the real social issues presidential candidates should focus on--even Republican candidates:

"A healthy economy, based on a foundation of well-paying jobs that allow for working-class people to afford homes and education for their children, is the centerpiece of a winning campaign for any office and the only way to make this country strong for the future. Invading the privacy of people's bedrooms and rewarding inept boardrooms does nothing to pull the U.S. out of the ditch. Social conservatives (busy taking the country back) often point to the Constitution and the Bible as the reference documents for their platform. From my years of studying political science, I have quite a few copies of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. Even after careful combing of both works, I can find nothing on how gay marriage is the kryptonite of our society or that while the government has no right to determine how to spend tax dollars, it has every right to tell a woman she has no choice when it comes to the most difficult decision she would ever face. Hands off your revenue but hands on a woman's body: boggles the mind, doesn't it?"

You can check his stuff out at Politico Arena and Soapbox Bubba.