Thursday, August 4, 2011

Obama's Reelection Chances...Fifteen Months Out

Politico Arena Topic: Will President Obama Lose the 2012 Election?

President Ronald Reagan was at 43 percent in the Gallup Poll at the beginning of August 1983 (the exact point in his presidency that Barack Obama is at now). Fifteen months later he won a landslide victory for reelection. Lesson: if twenty four hours is a lifetime in politics, fifteen months is an eon.

Although things look bad for President Obama’s reelection at this moment in time, fortunately for him the election is not next week. It is impossible to predict what will happen over a year from now or to predict whether or not President Obama will be reelected. One thing that political scientists are sure of, however: if the economy improves substantially and unemployment falls, this will help the president immensely. If the economy continues to stagnate or worsen, President Obama is in huge trouble.

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